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US 11,900,457 B2Granted
Methods for prediction and rating aggregation
OwnerLeonid Chuzhoyinventor
Life of this patent
Estimating the term…
Abstract
A method determines forecaster biases based on the correlations between prediction errors made by a group of forecasters. The method measures forecaster skills in different areas of expertise based on the correlations between the absolute values of prediction errors made by a group of forecasters. The method uses bias and skill measurements to raise the precision of aggregate forecasts. The method also reduces bias in social network rating systems by linking the ratings with objectively verifiable predictions.
Claims8
A computer implemented method, comprising:
- obtaining individual estimates for a set of numerical parameters from a plurality of information sources, wherein an information source may be a person, a group, an organization or any other entity that can provide information;
- comparing at least some of the estimates to the correct values of at least some of the parameters;
- decomposing estimate errors into generalized products of two vectors where the first vector measures the biases of the information sources and the second vector measures the sensitivity of the estimates to the biases of the information sources.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.