# US 11,897,510 B2 · Estimating trip duration based on vehicle reroute probabilities > Agents: this data is available as JSON from the patentgrep API and MCP server — see https://patentgrep.com/llms.txt - Number: US 11,897,510 B2 - Document ID: US11897510B2 - Status: Granted - Kind: B2 - Application number: 17/705,881 - Filed: 2022-03-28 - Published: 2022-07-14 - Granted: 2024-02-13 - Earliest claimed: 2020-05-21 - Assignees: GM Cruise Holdings LLC - Applicants: GM Cruise Holdings LLC - Inventors: Nolan Finn; Yanni Cao; Charles Bruce Matlack; Chen Xie - Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US11897510B2 ## CPC - B60W 60/0021: {specially adapted for travel time} - G01C 21/32: Structuring or formatting of map data - G01C 21/3415: {Dynamic re-routing, e.g. recalculating the route when the user deviates from calculated route or after detecting real-time traffic data or accidents} - G01C 21/3691: {Retrieval, searching and output of information related to real-time traffic, weather, or environmental conditions (arrangements for giving variable traffic instructions G08G1/09)} - G01S 19/42: Determining position - B60W: CONJOINT CONTROL OF VEHICLE SUB-UNITS OF DIFFERENT TYPE OR DIFFERENT FUNCTION; CONTROL SYSTEMS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR HYBRID VEHICLES; ROAD VEHICLE DRIVE CONTROL SYSTEMS FOR PURPOSES NOT RELATED TO THE CONTROL OF A PARTICULAR SUB-UNIT - G01C: MEASURING DISTANCES, LEVELS OR BEARINGS; SURVEYING; NAVIGATION; GYROSCOPIC INSTRUMENTS; PHOTOGRAMMETRY OR VIDEOGRAMMETRY (measuring liquid level G01F; radio navigation, determining distance or velocity by use of propagation effects, e.g. Doppler effects, propagation time, of radio waves, analogous arrangements using other waves G01S) - G01S: RADIO DIRECTION-FINDING; RADIO NAVIGATION; DETERMINING DISTANCE OR VELOCITY BY USE OF RADIO WAVES; LOCATING OR PRESENCE-DETECTING BY USE OF THE REFLECTION OR RERADIATION OF RADIO WAVES; ANALOGOUS ARRANGEMENTS USING OTHER WAVES ## Abstract The subject disclosure relates to ways to improve route duration calculations e.g., estimated time of arrival (ETA) approximations, by taking consideration of reroute probabilities along a given vehicle path. In some aspects, the disclosed technology encompasses a process including steps for identifying a route between a first destination to a second destination, determining a reroute likelihood associated with at least one AV maneuver along the route, and calculating an estimated time of arrival (ETA) based on the reroute likelihood associated with at least one AV maneuver. Systems and machine-readable media are also provided. ## Claims ### Claim 1 A computer-implemented method comprising: identifying a route between a first map location and a second map location, the route comprising one or more vehicle maneuvers; based on one or more capabilities of an AV and a respective estimated likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver of the one or more vehicle maneuvers, determining a reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver from the one or more vehicle maneuvers; based on the reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver, determining an estimated time of arrival (ETA) by the AV to the second map location; and sending the ETA to a computing device associated with a user. ### Claim 2 (depends on 1) The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising determining the likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver based on at least one of a map prior and a capability of the AV. ### Claim 3 (depends on 1) The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the respective estimated likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver of the one or more vehicle maneuvers is at least partly based on a respective type of maneuver of each vehicle maneuver, wherein the respective type of maneuver comprises at least one of a turn, a lane change, a u-turn, stopping, and a turn or cross in an intersection. ### Claim 4 (depends on 1) The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the one or more capabilities of the AV comprise at least one of an AV software version of the AV, a respective type of sensor of one or more sensors of the AV, an AV steering system, an AV braking system, and an AV routing and navigation capability. ### Claim 5 (depends on 4) The computer-implemented method of claim 4, wherein the respective type of sensor comprises at least one of a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) sensor system, a radio detection and ranging (RADAR) sensor system, an inertial measurement unit (IMU), an infrared sensor, a laser rangefinder system, and a camera sensor system. ### Claim 6 (depends on 1) The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising: determining one or more re-route paths to the second map location based on respective maneuver probabilities associated with the one or more re-route paths. ### Claim 7 (depends on 6) The computer-implemented method of claim 6, wherein the respective maneuver probabilities comprise at least one of a configuration associated with the one or more re-route paths, traffic lights associated with the one or more re-route paths, intersections associated with the one or more re-route paths, and traffic patterns associated with the one or more re-route paths. ### Claim 8 A system comprising: one or more processors; and a computer-readable medium comprising instructions stored thereon which, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to: identify a route between a first map location and a second map location, the route comprising one or more vehicle maneuvers; based on one or more capabilities of an AV and a respective estimated likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver of the one or more vehicle maneuvers, determining a reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver from the one or more vehicle maneuvers; based on the reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver, determine an estimated time of arrival (ETA) by the AV to the second map location; and send the ETA to a computing device associated with a user. ### Claim 9 (depends on 8) The system of claim 8, wherein the instructions, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to determine the likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver based on at least one of a map prior and a capability of the AV. ### Claim 10 (depends on 8) The system of claim 8, wherein the respective estimated likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver of the one or more vehicle maneuvers is at least partly based on a respective type of maneuver of each maneuver, wherein the respective type of maneuver comprises at least one of a turn, a lane change, a u-turn, stopping, and a turn or cross in an intersection. ### Claim 11 (depends on 8) The system of claim 8, wherein the one or more capabilities of the AV comprise at least one of an AV software version of the AV, a respective type of sensor of one or more sensors of the AV, an AV steering system, an AV braking system, and an AV routing and navigation capability. ### Claim 12 (depends on 11) The system of claim 11, wherein the respective type of sensor comprises at least one of a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) sensor system, a radio detection and ranging (RADAR) sensor system, an inertial measurement unit (IMU), an infrared sensor, a laser rangefinder system, and a camera sensor system. ### Claim 13 (depends on 8) The system of claim 8, wherein the computer-readable medium comprises instructions stored thereon which, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to: determine one or more re-route paths to the second map location based on respective maneuver probabilities associated with the one or more re-route paths. ### Claim 14 (depends on 13) The system of claim 13, wherein the respective maneuver probabilities comprise at least one of a configuration associated with the one or more re-route paths, traffic lights associated with the one or more re-route paths, intersections associated with the one or more re-route paths, and traffic patterns associated with the one or more re-route paths. ### Claim 15 A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium comprising instructions stored thereon which, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to: identify a route between a first map location and a second map location, the route comprising one or more vehicle maneuvers; based on one or more capabilities of an the AV and a respective estimated likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver of the one or more vehicle maneuvers, determining a reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver from the one or more vehicle maneuvers; based on the reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver, determining an estimated time of arrival (ETA) by the AV to the second map location; and send the ETA to a computing device associated with a user. ### Claim 16 (depends on 15) The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, having stored thereon instructions which, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to determine the likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver based on at least one of a map prior and a capability of the AV. ### Claim 17 (depends on 15) The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the respective estimated likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver of the one or more vehicle maneuvers is at least partly based on a respective type of maneuver of each vehicle maneuver, wherein the respective type of maneuver comprises at least one of a turn, a lane change, a u-turn, stopping, and a turn or cross in an intersection. ### Claim 18 (depends on 15) The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the one or more capabilities of the AV comprise at least one of an AV software version of the AV, a respective type of sensor of one or more sensors of the AV, an AV steering system, an AV braking system, and an AV routing and navigation capability. ### Claim 19 (depends on 18) The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 18, wherein the respective type of sensor comprises at least one of a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) sensor system, a radio detection and ranging (RADAR) sensor system, an inertial measurement unit (IMU), an infrared sensor, a laser rangefinder system, and a camera sensor system. ### Claim 20 (depends on 15) The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, comprising instructions stored thereon which, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to: determine one or more re-route paths to the second map location based on respective maneuver probabilities associated with the one or more re-route paths.