Predictive network routing with dynamic smoothing envelope creation for noisy network timeseries

An apparatus, comprising:

• one or more network interfaces;
• a processor coupled to the one or more network interfaces and configured to execute one or more processes;
• and
• a memory configured to store a process that is executable by the processor, the process when executed configured to:
• generate a plurality of smoothed timeseries by applying smoothing envelopes of different durations to a timeseries of a path metric for a path in a network that is used to convey traffic of an online application;
• use the plurality of smoothed timeseries and the timeseries of the path metric to make predictions as to whether the path will provide an unacceptable user experience in the online application;
• select a smoothing envelope of a particular duration, by comparing performance metrics for the predictions;
• and
• use a timeseries of the path metric smoothed using the smoothing envelope of the particular duration to make predictive routing decisions in the network for the traffic of the online application.

A tangible, non-transitory, computer-readable medium storing program instructions that cause a device to execute a process comprising:

• generating, by the device, a plurality of smoothed timeseries by applying smoothing envelopes of different durations to a timeseries of a path metric for a path in a network that is used to convey traffic of an online application;
• using, by the device, the plurality of smoothed timeseries and the timeseries of the path metric to make predictions as to whether the path will provide an unacceptable user experience in the online application;
• selecting, by the device, a smoothing envelope of a particular duration, by comparing performance metrics for the predictions;
• and
• using, by the device, a timeseries of the path metric smoothed using the smoothing envelope of the particular duration to make predictive routing decisions in the network for the traffic of the online application.