Method and system for predicting wear in a rail system

A method for maintaining a train track, the method comprising:

• modeling wear in a rail of a train track due to an estimated train traffic by:
• obtaining a train wheel profile of a train car;
• providing two or more sets of maintenance parameters, each set of maintenance parameters including:
• a rail profile;
• grinding parameters;
• and
• rail material properties;
• wherein at least one pair of corresponding maintenance parameters in the two or more sets of maintenance parameters is different from one another;
• for each of the two or more sets of maintenance parameters:
• generating a contact model of an interaction between the rail profile and a wheel of a train based on the rail profile, the train wheel profile, and estimated train traffic on the rail;
• generating a wear model based on the material properties;
• performing a wear simulation using the rail profile for a predetermined time period of one month or less by:
• running the contact model to produce a simulated loading;
• running the wear model to produce a simulated wear profile based on the simulated loading;
• and
• generating an updated rail profile by modifying the rail profile by the simulated wear profile and the grinding parameters;
• repeating the wear simulation iteratively for additional predetermined time periods using the updated rail profile and subsequent updated rail profiles until a final updated rail profile exceeds a predetermined wear limit for the rail;
• and
• calculating a wear time until the final updated rail profile exceeds the predetermined wear limit, wherein the wear time is at least one year;
• and
• comparing the wear times associated with each set of maintenance parameters;
• generating a maintenance recommendation based on the wear times associated with each set of maintenance parameters, wherein generating the maintenance recommendation includes either i) comparing a cost value over the wear time for each set of maintenance parameters, the cost value based on maintenance costs associated with the corresponding set of maintenance parameters, and selecting a set of maintenance parameters having a lower cost value, or ii) selecting a set of maintenance parameters having the longest wear time;
• and
• grinding the rail according to the grinding parameters of the maintenance recommendation.

A method for maintaining a train track, the method comprising:

• modeling wear in a rail of a train track due to an estimated train traffic by:
• configuring a computer-based system to predict wear in the rail of the train track, the computer-based system comprising:
• an input device operable to receive material properties of the rail, a rail profile of the rail, and a set of maintenance parameters, including at least one of a grinding profile for at least one grinding operation to be performed on the rail to produce artificial wear or an application of a friction modifier to be applied to the rail;
• an output device operable to convey wear information relating to the rail;
• memory operable to store the material properties of the rail, the rail profile of the rail, a train wheel profile of a wheel of a train car, and computer-executable instructions including wear prediction processes;
• and
• a processor;
• predicting wear in the rail with the computer-based system according to the wear prediction processes of the computer-executable instructions, wherein the computer-executable instructions cause the processor to predict wear in the rail by:
• generating a contact model of the interaction between the rail and the train car based on the rail profile, the train wheel profile, and the estimated train traffic on the rail;
• running the contact model to produce a simulated loading on the rail for a predetermined time period using the rail profile;
• generating a wear model based on the material properties and/or properties of the friction modifier on the rail during the predetermined time;
• running the wear model using the rail profile and the simulated loading from the contact model to produce a simulated wear profile of the rail for the predetermined time period;
• generating an updated rail profile by modifying the rail profile by the simulated wear profile and/or the grinding profile, wherein the computer-executable instructions cause the processor to repeat iteratively with the updated rail profile and subsequent updated rail profiles for corresponding subsequent predetermined time periods the following steps until a final subsequent updated rail profile exceeds a predetermined wear limit for the rail:
• running the contact model to produce a subsequent simulated loading, wherein the predetermined time period of the contact model is one month or less;
• running the wear model to produce a subsequent simulated wear profile based on the subsequent simulated loading, wherein the predetermined time period of the wear model is one month or less;
• and
• generating the subsequent updated rail profile by modifying the prior updated rail profile by the subsequent simulated wear profile and the grinding profile;
• and
• calculating a wear time until the final subsequent updated rail profile is reached, wherein the wear time is at least one year;
• wherein predicting wear in the rail includes calculating a corresponding wear time for each of a plurality of sets of maintenance parameters, the plurality of sets of maintenance parameters including a first set of maintenance parameters and a second set of maintenance parameters, a first wear time corresponding to the wear time until the final subsequent updated rail profile is reached based on the first set of maintenance parameters and a second wear time corresponding to the wear time until the final subsequent updated rail profile is reached based on the second set of maintenance parameters;
• and
• maintenance-parameters-maintaining the rail according to one of the first set of maintenance parameters or the second set of maintenance parameters having the longest wear time.