Aggregating sparse non-congruent simulation trials
AssigneeAnalycorp, Inc.
InventorsSam Savage, Jordan Alen
Life of this patent
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Abstract
A method of efficiently modeling changes to mitigation of an occurrence of a rare event for a number of simulation trials includes obtaining or generating a number of sparse simulation trials of a simulation including a total number of simulation trials (x) associated with the N occurrences of a rare event, assigning fractions of 1/N to N/N to the sparse simulation trials, filtering the sparse simulation trials by the assigned fractions by a percentage corresponding to y/N to simulate a mitigation of the likelihood of failure, and outputting sparse simulation trials that are less than the percentage to statistically represent the effects of the mitigation on the total number of trials.
Claims8
A computer-implemented method for merging at least two simulations having different likelihood of occurrences and statistically combining the results, the method comprising:
- generating a Z1 number of first sparse simulation trials for the occurrence of a first event having a first likelihood of occurrence out of X total number of trials, wherein each of the first sparse simulation trials is associated with a first trial number;
- generating a Z2 number of second sparse simulation trials for the occurrence of a second event having a second likelihood of occurrence out of Y total number of trials, wherein the second likelihood of occurrence is different from the first likelihood of occurrence, wherein each of the second sparse simulation trials is associated with a second trial number;
- expanding each of the second trial numbers to a range of trial numbers to normalize the second sparse simulation trials to the first sparse simulation trials;
- weighting each of the second trials numbers based on the normalization;
- combining the first sparse simulation trials with the second sparse simulation trials into resulting trials;
- outputting the combined resulting trials, wherein the combined resulting trials represent an aggregated outcome of the first likelihood of occurrence of the first event and the second likelihood of occurrence of the second event;
- identifying one or more risk metrics based at least in part on the combined resulting trials,
- associating the one or more risk metrics with respective at least one of colors and shades of elements of an asset representing the combined resulting trials;
- and
- displaying in a graphical display the respective at least one of colors and shades of the elements.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.