Replacement advertisement selection after channel changes

A computing system comprising a content presentation device, the computing system configured for performing a set of acts comprising:

• receiving, from the content-presentation device, a request for supplemental content for use in connection with performing a content-replacement operation;
• based on receiving the request, selecting a replacement content segment for output by the content-presentation device in place of a modifiable content segment, wherein the selected replacement content segment is different from a replacement content segment that is stored by the content-presentation device;
• calculating a probability of the content-presentation device being able to receive the selected replacement content segment before the content-replacement operation, wherein the probability is based on an average download speed based on historic download speed data, a size of the replacement content segment, and an amount of time remaining before the content-replacement operation;
• determining that the probability satisfies a threshold condition;
• based on the determining that the probability satisfies the threshold condition, determining that the content-presentation device should output the selected replacement content segment in place of the modifiable content segment instead of outputting the stored replacement content segment in place of the modifiable content segment;
• downloading, by the computing system, the selected replacement content segment based on the determination that the probability satisfies the threshold condition;
• and
• upon determining that the content-presentation device should output the selected replacement content segment instead of the stored replacement content segment and based on determining that the probability satisfies the threshold condition, transmitting the downloaded selected replacement content segment to the content-presentation device for display.

A non-transitory computer-readable medium having stored thereon program instructions that upon execution by a processor, cause performance of a set of acts comprising:

• receiving, from a content-presentation device, a request for supplemental content for use in connection with performing a content-replacement operation;
• based on receiving the request, selecting a replacement content segment for output by the content-presentation device in place of a modifiable content segment, wherein the selected replacement content segment is different from a replacement content segment that is stored by the content-presentation device;
• calculating a probability of the content-presentation device being able to receive the selected replacement content segment before the content-replacement operation, wherein the probability is based on an average download speed based on historic download speed data, a size of the replacement content segment, and an amount of time remaining before the content-replacement operation;
• determining that the probability satisfies a threshold condition;
• based on the determining that the probability satisfies the threshold condition, determining that the content-presentation device should output the selected replacement content segment in place of the modifiable content segment instead of outputting the stored replacement content segment in place of the modifiable content segment;
• downloading, by the computing system, the selected replacement content segment based on the determination that the probability satisfies the threshold condition;
• and
• upon determining that the content-presentation device should output the selected replacement content segment instead of the stored replacement content segment and based on determining that the probability satisfies the threshold condition, transmitting the downloaded selected replacement content segment to the content-presentation device for display.