Hydrocarbon well stimulation based on skin profiles

A hydrocarbon well system comprising:

• a well production system configured to operate the hydrocarbon well;
• and
• a well control system configured to perform the following operations:
• determining a skin increase threshold for a given period of time;
• for each of two or more hydrocarbon wells:
• collecting historical production data that is indicative of observed production characteristics for the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time;
• determining, based on the historical production data, a skin profile that is indicative of a change in a skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time;
• determining whether the change in the skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time exceeds the skin increase threshold;
• and
• identifying, in response to determining that change in the skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time exceeds the skin increase threshold, the hydrocarbon well as a candidate well for stimulation, wherein the skin increase threshold comprises a rate of change of skin over the given period of time, and the change in a skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time comprises a rate of change of the skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time;
• for each of the hydrocarbon wells identified as a candidate well for stimulation:
• determining an observed production flow rate for the hydrocarbon well;
• determining a predicted production flow rate of the hydrocarbon well that corresponds to the hydrocarbon well having a skin of zero;
• determining stimulation parameters that define parameters for a stimulation operation to remediate the wellbore of the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, based on the stimulation parameters, a cost of the stimulation operation for the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, based on the observed production flow rate and the predicted production flow rate, a predicted increase in production flow rate that is attributable to the stimulation operation;
• and
• determining, based on the cost of the stimulation operation for the hydrocarbon well and the predicted increase in production flow rate that is attributable to the stimulation operation, a marginal production cost for increased production attributable to the stimulation operation;
• selecting, based on the marginal production costs for the hydrocarbon wells and from the hydrocarbon wells identified as candidate wells for stimulation, a hydrocarbon well to be stimulated;
• and
• controlling the well production system to conduct the stimulation operation of the hydrocarbon well selected, wherein stimulation of the selected hydrocarbon well increases production to the predicted increase in production flow rate.

A non-transitory computer readable storage medium comprising program instructions stored thereon that are executable by a processor to perform the following operations for developing a hydrocarbon well:

• determining a skin increase threshold for a given period of time;
• for each of two or more hydrocarbon wells:
• collecting historical production data that is indicative of observed production characteristics for the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time;
• determining, based on the historical production data, a skin profile that is indicative of a change in a skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time;
• determining whether the change in the skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time exceeds the skin increase threshold;
• and
• identifying, in response to determining that change in the skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time exceeds the skin increase threshold, the hydrocarbon well as a candidate well for stimulation, wherein the skin increase threshold comprises a rate of change of skin over the given period of time, and the change in a skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time comprises a rate of change of the skin of the hydrocarbon well over the given period of time;
• for each of the hydrocarbon wells identified as a candidate well for stimulation:
• determining an observed production flow rate for the hydrocarbon well;
• determining a predicted production flow rate of the hydrocarbon well that corresponds to the hydrocarbon well having a skin of zero;
• determining stimulation parameters that define parameters for a stimulation operation to remediate the wellbore of the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, based on the stimulation parameters, a cost of the stimulation operation for the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, based on the observed production flow rate and the predicted production flow rate, a predicted increase in production flow rate that is attributable to the stimulation operation;
• and
• determining, based on the cost of the stimulation operation for the hydrocarbon well and the predicted increase in production flow rate that is attributable to the stimulation operation, a marginal production cost for increased production attributable to the stimulation operation;
• selecting, based on the marginal production costs for the hydrocarbon wells and from the hydrocarbon wells identified as candidate wells for stimulation, a hydrocarbon well to be stimulated;
• and
• controlling a well production system to conduct the stimulation operation of the hydrocarbon well selected, wherein stimulation of the selected hydrocarbon well increases production to the predicted increase in production flow rate.