Reservoir performance system

A system comprising:

• a processor;
• memory accessible to the processor;
• processor-executable instructions stored in the memory executable to instruct the system to:
• generate an initial number of simulation models of a subterranean environment, wherein each of the initial number of simulation models comprises a corresponding input set of values for parameters;
• generate an additional number of simulation models of the subterranean environment, wherein each of the additional number of simulation models comprises a corresponding additional number of input set of values for the parameters;
• perform simulations of physical phenomena using each of the initial number of simulation models and each of the additional number of simulation models, wherein each of the simulations generates a corresponding indexed output set of values for the physical phenomena;
• determine a series of indexed metrics using the indexed output sets;
• and
• based on the series of indexed metrics, decide to output the initial number of simulation models and the additional number of simulation models as an ensemble statistically representative of the subterranean environment or to generate one or more additional simulation models,
• wherein the deciding comprises determining a rate of change in the series of indexed metrics, and
• if the rate of change is less than a predetermined rate of change value, the deciding outputs the ensemble, or
• if the rate of change is greater than a predetermined rate of change value, the deciding generates one or more additional simulation models.

One or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media comprising processor-executable instructions to instruct a computing system to:

• generate an initial number of simulation models of a subterranean environment, wherein each of the initial number of simulation models comprises a corresponding input set of values for parameters;
• generate an additional number of simulation models of the subterranean environment, wherein each of the additional number of simulation models comprises a corresponding additional number of input set of values for the parameters;
• perform simulations of physical phenomena using each of the initial number of simulation models and each of the additional number of simulation models, wherein each of the simulations generates a corresponding indexed output set of values for the physical phenomena;
• determine a series of indexed metrics using the indexed output sets;
• and
• based on the series of indexed metrics, decide to output the initial number of simulation models and the additional number of simulation models as an ensemble statistically representative of the subterranean environment or to generate one or more additional simulation models,
• wherein the deciding comprises determining a rate of change in the series of indexed metrics, and
• if the rate of change is less than a predetermined rate of change value, the deciding outputs the ensemble, or
• if the rate of change is greater than a predetermined rate of change value, the deciding generates one or more additional simulation models.