Method and system for selecting a plant variety

A method for selecting a plant line for field trials in a plant breeding program aiming at producing new varieties for the target area, the plant line having at least one phenotypic trait, the method comprising:

• selecting a selection score function, which selection score function uses as input at least one prediction of one or more phenotypic traits and one or more additional selection score parameters and which selection score function is configured to output a selection score value for a plurality of chosen plant lines;
• estimating values of a first set of one or more environmental parameters for a predefined future period of time for the target area;
• receiving
• a set of phenotype information comprising phenotypic trait measurements for a first sub-set of a plurality of plant lines;
• and
• a set of environmental information comprising values of a second set of one or more environmental parameters for said first sub-set;
• determining a prediction model for the phenotypic traits, based on the estimated values of the first set of one or more environmental parameters, the received set of phenotype information and the received set of environmental information;
• using the prediction model to output predictions for phenotypic traits for the plurality of chosen plant lines;
• using the selection score function to compute selection score values based on the predictions for phenotypic traits for the plurality of chosen plant lines and one or more additional selection score parameters;
• and
• selecting at least one plant line to be tested in a field trial to develop a new variety for the target area from the plurality of chosen plant lines, based the computed selection score values of the plurality of chosen plant lines.

A system for selecting a plant variety for cultivation in a target area, the system comprising a data processing arrangement configured to:

• the plant variety having at least one phenotypic trait, the method comprising:
• select a selection score function, which selection score function uses as input at least one prediction of one or more phenotypic traits and one or more additional selection score parameters and which selection score function is configured to output a selection score value for a plurality of chosen plant varieties;
• estimate values of a first set of one or more environmental parameters for a predefined future period of time for the target area;
• receive
• a set of phenotype information comprising phenotypic trait measurements for a first sub-set of a plurality of plant varieties;
• and
• a set of environmental information comprising values of a second set of one or more environmental parameters for said first sub-set;
• determine a prediction model for the phenotypic traits, based on the estimated values of the first set of one or more environmental parameters, the received set of phenotype information and the received set of environmental information;
• use the prediction model to output predictions for phenotypic traits for the plurality of chosen plant varieties;
• use the selection score function to compute selection score values based on the predictions for phenotypic traits for the plurality of chosen plant varieties and one or more additional selection score parameters;
• and
• select at least one plant variety to be cultivated in the target area from the plurality of chosen plant varieties, based the computed selection score values of the plurality of chosen plant varieties.