Systems and methods for reliably detecting wear metal particles in lubrication systems to avoid progressive damage

A method comprising:

• determining, by a controller, a concentration of wear metal particles in a lubricant for an engine system;
• determining, by the controller, a confidence parameter regarding the concentration;
• determining, by the controller, a filtered concentration of the plurality of wear metal particles using a baseline concentration of the wear metal particles;
• setting, by the controller, a diagnostic threshold for the plurality of wear metal particles based on the confidence parameter and the filtered concentration of the wear metal particles;
• and
• providing, by the controller, a notification responsive to determining that the concentration of the wear metal particles exceeds the diagnostic threshold.

A controller for an engine system, the controller comprising:

• a processing circuit having at least one processor coupled to at least one memory device, the processing circuit configured to execute a plurality of circuits including:
• a concentration circuit structured to determine a concentration of wear metal particles in a lubricant for the engine system;
• a confidence circuit structured to determine a confidence parameter regarding the concentration of the wear metal particles;
• a baselining circuit structured to determine a filtered concentration of the wear metal particles using a baseline concentration of the wear metal particles;
• a dynamic threshold circuit structured to set a diagnostic threshold for the plurality of wear metal particles based on the confidence parameter and the filtered concentration of the wear metal particles;
• and
• a notification circuit structured to provide a notification, responsive to determining that the concentration of the wear metal particles exceeds the diagnostic threshold.