System and method for modelling and forecasting electricity demand

A system for modeling and forecasting electricity demand in a power generation and distribution network that includes a plurality of nodes having cooling appliances or heating appliances, the system comprising:

• one or more computing devices, comprising:
• an electricity demand modeling device configured to
• build, using intraday temperature and electricity demand data, a per-capita parametric model of high-level features of an electric demand curve as a function of temperature and time for a geographic region in the power generation and distribution network, the electric demand curve comprising the high-level features and residual features, the high-level features comprising underlying base load and heating or cooling requirements;
• model, using a residual parametric model of the residual features of the electric demand curve, residual intraday variations in electric demand with respect to intraday variations in temperature from a daily temperature mean;
• determine, using the intraday electricity demand data and modeled high-level features of the electric demand curve, average residual variations in electric demand with respect to intraday time periods;
• iteratively optimize a residual error between the modeled residual intraday variations in electric demand and the determined average residual variations in electric demand by updating parameters in the residual parametric model until the residual error is below a predetermined threshold;
• and
• repeat, using an optimization method, the building, modeling, determining, and iteratively optimizing in a recursive fashion to optimize parameters of the per-capita and residual parametric models;
• and
• an electricity demand forecasting device that determines, using the optimized parametric models, electricity demand per-capita for the geographic region and transmits the determined electricity demand per-capita model for the geographic region to a communicating device in the power generation and distribution network,
• wherein the communicating device is configured to apply the transmitted electricity demand per-capita for the geographic region in order to modify one or more electricity transmission parameters in a power generation station and to adjust electric power distributed in the power generation and distribution network.

A non-transitory computer readable storage medium storing electricity demand modeling and forecasting instructions for causing per-capita electricity demand for a geographic region in a power generation and distribution network that includes a plurality of nodes having cooling appliances or heating appliances to be modeled and forecasted, the program instructions comprising the steps of:

• building, using intraday temperature and electricity demand data, a per-capita parametric model of high-level features of an electric demand curve as a function of temperature and time for a geographic region in the power generation and distribution network, the electric demand curve comprising the high-level features and residual features, the high-level features comprising underlying base load and heating or cooling requirements;
• modeling, using a residual parametric model of the residual features of the electric demand curve, residual intraday variations in electric demand with respect to intraday variations in temperature from a daily temperature mean;
• determining, using the intraday electricity demand data and modeled high-level features of the electric demand curve, average residual variations in electric demand with respect to intraday time periods;
• iteratively optimizing a residual error between the modeled residual intraday variations in electric demand and the determined average residual variations in electric demand by updating parameters in the residual parametric model until the residual error is below a predetermined threshold;
• repeating, using an optimization method, the building, modeling, determining, and iteratively optimizing in a recursive fashion to optimize parameters of the per-capita and residual parametric models;
• determining, using the optimized parametric models, electricity demand per-capita for the geographic region;
• and
• applying the determined electricity demand per-capita for the geographic region to modify one or more electricity transmission parameters in a power generation station in order to adjust electric power distributed in the power generation and distribution network.