Power generation amount prediction apparatus, power generation amount prediction method, system stabilization apparatus, and system stabilization method

A system stabilization apparatus that stabilizes an electric power system, including a power plant performing power generation by use of renewable energy, comprising:

• a central processing unit (CPU);
• a power generation amount prediction apparatus for predicting a power generation amount at a power plant that performs power generation by use of renewable energy, comprising:
• a first database memory in communication with the CPU, the first database memory storing a plurality of instructions executable by the CPU to cause the implementation of:
• a model generation unit that generates a model of the power generation amount of the power plant in regard to each model generation time based on a weather track record and an output power track record in regard to the power plant;
• a similar track record data extraction unit that obtains a weather track record similar to weather prediction data and a corresponding output power track record as similar track record data;
• a model accuracy unit that determines accuracy of each of a plurality of models of the model generation unit in a weather condition similar to the weather prediction data by using the similar track record data, wherein
• each of the models in the plurality of models differ by one or more of a recorded model generation time and/or a power generation site;
• a model selection unit that selects a model from the plurality of models to be used for the prediction by using the accuracy of each of the models;
• and
• a model output power prediction unit that predicts the power generation amount of the power plant by using the selected model;
• and
• a second database memory in communication with the CPU, the second database memory storing a second plurality of instructions executable by the CPU to cause the implementation of:
• a system condition prediction unit that predicts a system condition of the electric power system including the power plant performing the power generation by use of renewable energy in terms of a time series by using the predicted power generation amount;
• a control target determination unit that determines a control target generator for system stabilization when a deterioration in the predicted system condition is predicted;
• and
• a control command unit that transmits a control command to the determined control target generator to control an output of the determined control target generator to stabilize the system condition of the electric power system including the power plant.