Systems, methods, and devices for optimizing advertisement placement

A system for tracking conversion success and revenue of a creative based on target device interactions, the system comprising:

• one or more computer readable storage devices configured to store:
• a plurality of computer-executable instructions;
• a plurality of placements, wherein each placement of the plurality of placements indicates a location within a user interface where a creative is rendered;
• and
• a plurality of creatives, wherein each creative of the plurality of creatives includes one or more images or text associated with one or more advertisements, and wherein each creative is associated with one or more placements;
• and
• weightings data comprising a plurality of weightings associated with, and corresponding to, the plurality of creatives, wherein the weightings data associated with each creative:
• includes historical performance data of advertisements associated with each creative throughout a defined historical timeframe;
• is based at least in part on each creative's association with one or more placements;
• and
• is based at least in part on a confidence value associated with a likelihood that a particular creative will generate more revenue than other creatives that are available for the same placement;
• and
• one or more hardware computer processors in communication with the one or more computer readable storage devices to execute the plurality of computer-executable instructions to cause the system to:
• receive, from a web server in communication with a target device, a request for one or more creatives to be placed on a webpage at one or more available placements, wherein the request includes device identifying information identifying the target device and parameters that indicate a type of device of the target device, and wherein the request also includes one or more available placements on the webpage;
• in response to receiving the request, generate performance forecast data for a first creative of the plurality of creatives at a first placement of the plurality of placements by:
• accessing the historical performance data corresponding to the first creative which is based at least in part on a historical performance of advertisements associated with the first creative throughout a defined historical timeframe, wherein the historical performance is based at least in part on a conversion success and a revenue associated with each advertisement;
• aggregating the historical performance data;
• applying user-provided adjustments to the historical performance data;
• determining a reference value for each placement that the first creative may be used on, wherein each reference value includes an expected value associated with performance of a generic creative;
• and
• determining performance forecasts for the first creative based at least in part on the aggregated and adjusted historical performance data;
• determine a phase of the first creative associated with the first placement, wherein the phase includes one or more of:
• a preliminary phase, a promotion phase, and a maximization phase;
• perform statistical tests on the historical performance data to determine a likely future performance of the first creative at the first placement by:
• generating estimates of standard deviations of at least a portion of the historical performance data indicative of a likelihood that future performance of the first creative at the first placement will exceed a specified reference value;
• and
• determining a confidence value by comparing the first creative to reference values, wherein the confidence value indicates that the first creative at the first placement will likely outperform other creatives of the plurality of creatives at the first placement;
• generate weightings data for the first creative at the first placement based at least in part on the confidence value, performance forecasts, and phase of the first creative, wherein the confidence value is adjusted based on an aggressiveness factor, wherein a high aggressiveness factor corresponds to more weight being placed on the first creative such that there would be a high likelihood that other creatives of the plurality of creatives will be omitted from a placement's rotation, and wherein the aggressiveness factor is computed based at least in part on:
• (i) a number of creatives that are a part of an advertising plan;
• (ii) a number of inquires available for evaluating a top performer's performance with respect to revenue generated or number of selections over a period of time;
• (iii) a degree to which the confidence values on top performers impression conversion rate and revenue per thousand impressions are consistent;
• and
• (iv) amount of dispersion of the confidence values of creatives with respect to variation of the confidence values in relation to a mean confidence value;
• determine that that first creative is appropriate to send to the web server based at least partly on the weightings data and the one or more available placements on the webpage to be served to the target device, wherein the first creative is associated with a first source identifier;
• determine a first placement of the first creative for the target device based at least partly on the weightings data, the one or more available placements on the webpage to be served to the target device, and the device identifying information;
• generate and transmit, to the web server, instructions for accessing the first creative and for displaying the first creative on the target device at the first placement, wherein the instructions are configured for transmission from the web server to the target device to allow the target device to access the first creative from a server external to the web server;
• receive an indication that a creative was selected at the target device;
• determine a source identifier associated with the selected creative, wherein the source identifier includes information identifying the first creative, indicating that a user of the target device selected the first creative on the webpage served to the target device;
• determine a revenue that was generated based at least in part on the selection of the first creative;
• continue monitoring the target device to determine additional factors that include
• (1) any additional revenue generated throughout a sales cycle,
• (2) actual business revenue gained by an advertiser associated with the first creative;
• determine conversion success of the first creative based at least in part on whether the target device reaches online content associated with selection of the first creative;
• and
• update the weightings data based at least in part on the determined conversion success, the determined revenue, and the additional factors.