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US 11,379,274 B2Granted
Hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction method
AssigneeHitachi, Ltd.
InventorsPanitarn Chongfuangprinya, Bo Yang, Yanzhu Ye, Yasushi Tomita, Sumito Tobe
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Abstract
Example implementations described herein involve a hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction method and system configured to predict spatial-temporal event probability that can be utilized for short term planning. For systems such as utility systems that manage multiple locations over time, the example implementations utilize both a spatial model and a temporal model to create a hybrid spatial-temporal model that accounts for data taken over time as well as data across the locations to more accurately forecast the probability of an event occurrence over a period of time.
Claims15
A method for conducting short-term event management for a system, comprising:
- generating a spatial event probability prediction model and a temporal event probability prediction model from historical data of the system;
- generating a hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model from data received from the system, the spatial event probability prediction model and the temporal event probability prediction model;
- and
- executing the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the received data over one or more locations managed by the system to generate spatial temporal probabilities for the one or more locations managed by the system;
- wherein the system is a utility system, the received data comprising data associated with outage events of the utility system, the method further comprising:
- wherein the executing the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the data over one or more locations managed by the system comprises executing the generated hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the data to generate spatial-temporal probabilities of the outages of the utility system over the one or more locations managed by the utility system;
- and
- for the generated spatial-temporal probabilities indicative of a location from the one or more locations managed by the utility system having an outage event probability exceeding threshold over a period of time indicated by the spatial-temporal probabilities, scheduling instructions to be dispatched to conduct maintenance on the location based on the outage event;
- wherein the received data comprises spatial data and spatial-temporal data, wherein the generating the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model from the received data, the spatial event probability prediction model and the temporal event probability prediction model comprises:
- executing the spatial event probability prediction model on the spatial data and executing the temporal event probability prediction model on to each sub-area of all areas of the system to generate first results comprising a relative spatial-temporal event probability for the each sub-area of the one or more locations of short-term planning;
- executing the temporal event probability prediction model on the spatial-temporal data over all areas of the system to generate second results comprising temporal event probability for the all areas of the system;
- and
- generating a conversion model from the second results and from processing of the first results to generate the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model.
10 more elements
A non-transitory computer readable medium, storing instructions for conducting short-term event management for a system, the instructions comprising:
- generating a spatial event probability prediction model and a temporal event probability prediction model from historical data of the system;
- generating a hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model from received data from the system, the spatial event probability prediction model and the temporal event probability prediction model;
- and
- executing the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the received data over one or more locations managed by the system to generate spatial temporal probabilities for the one or more locations managed by the system;
- wherein the system is a utility system, the received data comprising data associated with outage events of the utility system, the instructions further comprising:
- wherein the executing the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the data over one or more locations managed by the system comprises executing the generated hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the data to generate spatial-temporal probabilities of the outages of the utility system over the one or more locations managed by the utility system;
- and
- for the generated spatial-temporal probabilities indicative of a location from the one or more locations managed by the utility system having an outage event probability exceeding threshold over a period of time indicated by the spatial-temporal probabilities, scheduling instructions to be dispatched to conduct maintenance on the location based on the outage event;
- wherein the received data comprises spatial data and spatial-temporal data, wherein the generating the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model from the received data, the spatial event probability prediction model and the temporal event probability prediction model comprises:
- executing the spatial event probability prediction model on the spatial data and executing the temporal event probability prediction model on to each sub-area of all areas of the system to generate first results comprising a relative spatial-temporal event probability for the each sub-area of the one or more locations of short-term planning;
- executing the temporal event probability prediction model on the spatial-temporal data over all areas of the system to generate second results comprising temporal event probability for the all areas of the system;
- and
- generating a conversion model from the second results and from processing of the first results to generate the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model.
10 more elements
An apparatus configured to conducting short-term event management for a system, the apparatus comprising:
- a processor, configured to:
- generate a spatial event probability prediction model and a temporal event probability prediction model from historical data of the system;
- generate a hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model from received data from the system, the spatial event probability prediction model and the temporal event probability prediction model;
- and
- execute the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the received data over one or more locations managed by the system to generate spatial temporal probabilities for the one or more locations managed by the system;
- wherein the system is a utility system, the received data comprising data associated with outage events of the utility system;
- wherein the processor is configured to execute the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the data over one or more locations managed by the system by executing the generated hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model on the data to generate spatial-temporal probabilities of the outages of the utility system over the one or more locations managed by the utility system;
- and
- for the generated spatial-temporal probabilities indicative of a location from the one or more locations managed by the utility system having an outage event probability exceeding threshold over a period of time indicated by the spatial-temporal probabilities, the processor is configured to schedule instructions to be dispatched to conduct maintenance on the location based on the outage event;
- wherein the received data comprises spatial data and spatial-temporal data, wherein the processor is configured to generate the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model from the received data, the spatial event probability prediction model and the temporal event probability prediction model by:
- executing the spatial event probability prediction model on the spatial data and executing the temporal event probability prediction model on to each sub-area of all areas of the system to generate first results comprising a relative spatial-temporal event probability for the each sub-area of the one or more locations of short-term planning;
- executing the temporal event probability prediction model on the spatial-temporal data over all areas of the system to generate second results comprising temporal event probability for the all areas of the system;
- and
- generating a conversion model from the second results and from processing of the first results to generate the hybrid spatial-temporal event probability prediction model.
11 more elements
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.