System, method and computer simulation environment for in silico trials in pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes

A computer-executable program product comprising computer executable code stored in a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, wherein said computer-executable program product simulates a glucose-insulin metabolic system of a T2DM or prediabetic subject, said computer-executable code comprising:

• subsystem code that models dynamic glucose concentration in a T2DM or prediabetic subject, including:
• an electronic code module that models endogenous glucose production (EGP(t)) of a T2DM or prediabetic subject,
• an electronic code module that models meal glucose rate of appearance (Ra(t)) of a T2DM or prediabetic subject,
• an electronic code module that models glucose utilization (U(t)) of a T2DM or prediabetic subject,
• an electronic code module that models renal excretion of glucose (E(t)) of a T2DM or prediabetic subject;
• subsystem code that models dynamic insulin concentration in said T2DM or prediabetic subject, including:
• an electronic code module that models insulin secretion (S(t)) of a T2DM or prediabetic subject;
• an electronic database containing a population of virtual T2DM or prediabetic subjects representative of the T2DM and prediabetic population, each virtual subject having a plurality of metabolic parameters with values encompassing a distribution of parameters observed in vivo across the population of T2DM or prediabetic subjects;
• and
• computer-executable code that calculates an effect of variation of at least one metabolic parameter value on the glucose-insulin metabolic system of a virtual T2DM or prediabetic subject by inputting said plurality of metabolic parameter values of said T2DM or prediabetic subject into said glucose concentration and insulin concentration subsystems and varying at least one of said metabolic parameter values to determine its effect on the glucose-insulin metabolic system of said T2DM or prediabetic subject.