Dynamic hydrocarbon well skin modeling and operation

A hydrocarbon well system comprising:

• a well production system configured to regulate the flow of hydrocarbon production from a hydrocarbon well;
• and
• a well control system configured to perform the following operations:
• determining a first set of operating parameters for a hydrocarbon well that are indicative of observed performance of the hydrocarbon well over a first period of time;
• determining, based on the first set of operating parameters for the hydrocarbon well, a first skin factor (S1) for the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, based on the first skin factor (S1) for the hydrocarbon well, a first well model for the hydrocarbon well that defines a first relationship of flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well to production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, a second set of operating parameters for the hydrocarbon well that are indicative of observed performance of the hydrocarbon well over a second period of time that is subsequent to the first period of time;
• determining, based on the second set of operating parameters for the hydrocarbon well, well performance characteristics for the second period of time that comprise:
• a flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time;
• and
• a production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time;
• determining, based on a comparison of the well performance characteristics for the second period of time to the first well model for the hydrocarbon well, that the well performance characteristics for the second period of time are not consistent with the first well model for the hydrocarbon well, the determining that the well performance characteristics for the second period of time are not consistent with the first well model for the hydrocarbon well comprising:
• determining, based on the first relationship of flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well to production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well:
• a first acceptable range of flowing well pressure;
• and
• a first acceptable range of production flowrate;
• determining that at least one of the flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time does not correspond to the first acceptable range of flowing well pressure or the production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time does not correspond to the first acceptable range of production flowrate;
• and
• determining, in response to determining that at least one of the flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time does not correspond to the first acceptable range of flowing well pressure or the production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time does not correspond to the first acceptable range of production flowrate, that the well performance characteristics for the second period of time are not consistent with the first well model for the hydrocarbon well;
• in response to determining that the well performance characteristics for the second period of time are not consistent with the first well model for the hydrocarbon well:
• determining, based on the second set of operating parameters for the hydrocarbon well, a second skin factor (S2) for the hydrocarbon well;
• and
• determining, based on the second skin factor (S2) for the hydrocarbon well, a second well model for the hydrocarbon well that defines a second relationship of flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well to production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, based on the second well model for the hydrocarbon well, an operating parameter for the hydrocarbon well;
• and
• controlling the well production system to operate the hydrocarbon well in accordance with the operating parameter.

A non-transitory computer readable storage medium comprising program instructions stored thereon that are executable by a processor to perform the following operations for developing a hydrocarbon well:

• determining a first set of operating parameters for a hydrocarbon well that are indicative of observed performance of the hydrocarbon well over a first period of time;
• determining, based on the first set of operating parameters for the hydrocarbon well, a first skin factor (S1) for the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, based on the first skin factor (S1) for the hydrocarbon well, a first well model for the hydrocarbon well that defines a first relationship of flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well to production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, a second set of operating parameters for the hydrocarbon well that are indicative of observed performance of the hydrocarbon well over a second period of time that is subsequent to the first period of time;
• determining, based on the second set of operating parameters for the hydrocarbon well, well performance characteristics for the second period of time that comprise:
• a flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time;
• and
• a production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time;
• determining, based on a comparison of the well performance characteristics for the second period of time to the first well model for the hydrocarbon well, that the well performance characteristics for the second period of time are not consistent with the first well model for the hydrocarbon well, the determining that the well performance characteristics for the second period of time are not consistent with the first well model for the hydrocarbon well comprising:
• determining, based on the first relationship of flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well to production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well:
• a first acceptable range of flowing well pressure;
• and
• a first acceptable range of production flowrate;
• determining that at least one of the flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time does not correspond to the first acceptable range of flowing well pressure or the production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time does not correspond to the first acceptable range of production flowrate;
• and
• determining, in response to determining that at least one of the flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time does not correspond to the first acceptable range of flowing well pressure or the production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well for the second period of time does not correspond to the first acceptable range of production flowrate, that the well performance characteristics for the second period of time are not consistent with the first well model for the hydrocarbon well;
• in response to determining that the well performance characteristics for the second period of time are not consistent with the first well model for the hydrocarbon well:
• determining, based on the second set of operating parameters for the hydrocarbon well, a second skin factor (S2) for the hydrocarbon well;
• and
• determining, based on the second skin factor (S2) for the hydrocarbon well, a second well model for the hydrocarbon well that defines a second relationship of flowing well pressure of the hydrocarbon well to production flowrate of the hydrocarbon well;
• determining, based on the second well model for the hydrocarbon well, an operating parameter for the hydrocarbon well;
• and
• operating the hydrocarbon well in accordance with the operating parameter.