Credit offers based on non-transactional data

A system associated with a payment service comprising:

• one or more processors;
• and
• one or more computer-readable non-transitory storage media coupled to one or more of the processors and comprising instructions operable when executed by one or more of the processors to cause the system to:
• receive, by one or more computing devices of the payment service and from a plurality of merchant devices, transaction data associated with a plurality of payment transactions associated with a plurality of merchants having accounts with the payment service, wherein each merchant device of the plurality of merchant devices has installed thereon an instance of a merchant application configuring the respective merchant device as a point-of-sale terminal for generating the transaction data and transmitting the transaction data to the payment service;
• process, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service and based at least in part on the transaction data, payment for the plurality of payment transactions on behalf of the plurality of merchants;
• determine, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service and using a risk model, a probability of default for a merchant of the plurality of merchants, wherein the risk model operates based at least in part on a portion of the transaction data corresponding to the merchant;
• determine, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service and at a first time, that the probability of default for the merchant satisfies a threshold;
• calculate, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service and, using the risk model, and based at least in part on the probability of default satisfying the threshold, a first financing factor for the merchant based at least in part on the portion of the transaction data associated with the merchant, wherein the first financing factor represents a first measure of income of the merchant;
• generate, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service, a first credit offer based at least in part on the financing factor for the merchant;
• access, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service and based at least in part on a determination that a response to the first credit offer has not been received, a portion of interaction data associated with the merchant and stored by the payment service, wherein the portion of the interaction data indicates interactions between the merchant and one or more of an appointment service, a payroll service, or an inventory service;
• predict, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service and based at least in part on the portion of the interaction data, additional revenue of the merchant;
• calculate, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service, using the risk model, a second financing factor based at least in part on the predicted additional revenue of the merchant, wherein the second financing factor represents a second measure of income of the merchant;
• generate, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service, a second credit offer for the merchant based at least in part on the first financing factor and the second financing factor, wherein the second credit offer replaces the first credit offer;
• cause, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service, the merchant device associated with the merchant to display a user interface including the second credit offer;
• receive, by the one or more computing devices of the payment service and via the user interface, an indication of an acceptance of the second credit offer;
• and
• cause, based at least in part on receiving the indication of the acceptance of the second credit offer, an amount of funds associated with the second credit offer to be transferred to an account of the merchant, wherein at least a portion of the funds are repaid to the payment service by funds withheld from proceeds of one or more future transactions associated with at least one of the payment service, the appointment service, the payroll service, or the inventory service.

One or more computer-readable non-transitory storage media associated with a payment service, embodying software that is operable when executed to:

• receive, from a plurality of merchant devices, transaction data associated with a plurality of payment transactions associated with a plurality of merchants having accounts with the payment service, wherein each merchant device of the plurality of merchant devices has installed thereon an instance of a merchant application configuring the respective merchant device as a point-of-sale terminal for generating the transaction data and transmitting at least the transaction data to the payment service;
• process, based at least in part on the transaction data, payment for the plurality of payment transactions on behalf of the plurality of merchants;
• determine, using a risk model, a probability of default for a merchant of the plurality of merchants, wherein the risk model operates based at least in part on a portion of the transaction data corresponding to the merchant;
• determine, at a first time, that the probability of default for the merchant satisfies a threshold;
• calculate, using the risk model, and based at least in part on the probability of default satisfying the threshold, a first financing factor for the merchant based at least in part on the portion of the transaction data associated with the merchant, wherein the first financing factor represents a first measure of income of the merchant;
• generate a first credit offer for the merchant based at least in part on the first financing factor for the merchant;
• access, based at least in part on a determination that a response to the first credit offer has not been received, a portion of interaction data associated with the merchant and stored by the payment service, wherein the portion of the interaction data indicates interactions between the merchant and one or more of an appointment service, a payroll service, or an inventory service;
• predict, based at least in part on the portion of the interaction data, additional revenue of the merchant;
• calculate, using the risk model, a second financing factor based at least in part on the predicted additional revenue of the merchant, wherein the second financing factor represents a second measure of income of the merchant;
• generate a second credit offer for the merchant based at least in part on the first financing factor and the second financing factor, wherein the second credit offer replaces the first credit offer;
• cause the merchant device associated with the merchant to display a user interface including the second credit offer;
• receive, via the user interface, an indication of an acceptance of the second credit offer;
• and
• cause, based at least in part on receiving the indication of the acceptance, an amount of funds associated with the second credit offer to be transferred to a financial account of the merchant, wherein at least a portion of the funds are repaid to the payment service by funds withheld from proceeds of one or more future transactions associated with at least one of the payment service, the appointment service, the payroll service, or an inventory service.