Real time induced seismicity management

An apparatus configured to process earthquake magnitude and fluid injection data, the apparatus comprising a processor in communication with memory, the processor being configured to execute instructions stored in the memory that cause the processor to perform:

• receiving data indicative of earthquake magnitudes associated with a set of fluid injection rates of fluid into one or more wells at a location;
• calculating a magnitude distribution value and an uncertainty of the distribution value based on the received earthquake data, wherein the distribution value represents a proportion of each magnitude earthquake observed;
• calculating a seismogenic index based on an injected volume from the set of fluid injection rates, the distribution value, and an earthquake count from the received earthquake data, wherein the seismogenic index represents a number of earthquakes per volume of fluid injected into the earth at the one or more wells at the location;
• generating a distribution value expectation based on previously determined seismicity, wherein the distribution value represents a distribution of magnitudes that may be observed for the previously determined seismicity;
• generating, based on the distribution value, an expected distribution of future earthquake magnitude observations;
• forecasting a number of earthquakes that will be induced of each magnitude based on the seismogenic index and the expected distribution of future earthquake magnitude observations;
• and
• calculating, based on the forecasted number of earthquakes that will be induced for each magnitude, a ground motion prediction model that represents shaking intensity at distance from the one or more wells at the location.

A non-transitory computer-readable media comprising instructions that, when executed by one or more processors on a computing device, are operable to cause the one or more processors to process earthquake magnitude and fluid injection data, comprising:

• receiving data indicative of earthquake magnitudes associated with a set of fluid injection rates of fluid into one or more wells at a location;
• calculating a magnitude distribution value and an uncertainty of the distribution value based on the received earthquake data, wherein the distribution value represents a proportion of each magnitude earthquake observed;
• calculating a seismogenic index based on an injected volume from the set of fluid injection rates, the distribution value, and an earthquake count from the received earthquake data, wherein the seismogenic index represents a number of earthquakes per volume of fluid injected into the earth at the one or more wells at the location;
• generating a distribution value expectation based on previously determined seismicity, wherein the distribution value represents a distribution of magnitudes that may be observed for the previously determined seismicity;
• generating, based on the distribution value, an expected distribution of future earthquake magnitude observations;
• forecasting a number of earthquakes that will be induced of each magnitude based on the seismogenic index and the expected distribution of future earthquake magnitude observations;
• and
• calculating, based on the forecasted number of earthquakes that will be induced for each magnitude, a ground motion prediction model that represents shaking intensity at distance from the one or more wells at the location.