Multiplayer video game matchmaking optimization

A system comprising:

• an electronic data store configured to store user interaction data for users of a video game;
• and
• a hardware processor in communication with the electronic data store, the hardware processor configured to execute specific computer-executable instructions to at least:
• receive an indication that a first user and a second user desire to play an instance of the video game together;
• associate the first user and the second user as a user set;
• access first user interaction data associated with the first user's interaction with the video game and second user interaction data associated with the second user's interaction with the video game;
• select at least a third user to play the instance of the video game with the user set;
• access third user interaction data associated with the third user's interaction with the video game;
• form a match plan that includes at least the user set and the third user;
• predict a match retention value for the match plan based at least in part on the first user interaction data, the second user interaction data, the third user interaction data, and the existence of the user set, the retention value associated with an amount of time that users included in the match plan are predicted to play the video game;
• and
• substitute at least one of the third user or each of the users included in the user set with other users that have indicated a desire to play the instance of the video game to obtain an updated match plan when determining that the match retention value does not satisfy a match retention threshold.

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer executable instructions that, when executed by one or more computing devices, configure the one or more computing devices to perform operations comprising:

• receiving an indication that a first user and a second user desire to play an instance of a video game together;
• associating the first user and the second user as a user set;
• accessing first user interaction data associated with the first user's interaction with the video game and second user interaction data associated with the second user's interaction with the video game;
• selecting at least a third user to play the instance of the video game with the user set;
• accessing third user interaction data associated with the third user's interaction with the video game;
• forming a match plan that includes at least the user set and the third user;
• predicting a match retention value for the match plan based at least in part on the first user interaction data, the second user interaction data, the third user interaction data, and an indication that the first user and the second user are in the user set, the retention value associated with an amount of time that users included in the match plan are predicted to play the video game;
• and
• responsive to determining that the match retention value does not satisfy a match retention threshold, substituting at least one of the third user or each of the users included in the user set with other users that have indicated a desire to play the instance of the video game to obtain an updated match plan.