# US 11,112,534 B2 · Method and system for predicting the financial impact of environmental or geologic conditions

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- Number: US 11,112,534 B2
- Document ID: US11112534B2
- Status: Granted
- Kind: B2
- Application number: 16/549,079
- Filed: 2019-08-23
- Published: 2019-12-12
- Granted: 2021-09-07
- Earliest claimed: 2016-05-31
- Assignees: AccuWeather, Inc.
- Applicants: Accuweather, Inc.
- Inventors: Rosemary Y. Radich; Tim Loftus; Jennifer Bowers; Paul Roehsner; Paul Raymond; Michael R. Root
- Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US11112534B2

## CPC

- G01W 1/10: Devices for predicting weather conditions (computers per se G06; display devices G09)
- G06Q 10/04: Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" (market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202)
- G01W: METEOROLOGY (radar, sonar, lidar or analogous systems, designed for meteorological use G01S13/95, G01S15/88, G01S17/95)
- G06Q: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

## Abstract

A system and method of predicting the financial impact of environmental or geologic events (that include one or more environmental or geologic conditions) by determining a recurrence interval of each past condition in each location, determining the correlation between the past condition and the observable financial impact of the past event, calculating a predicted observable financial impact of each past event, calculating a predicted financial impact of each past event recurring by multiplying the predicted observable financial impact of the past event by the recurrence interval of the past condition, grouping the past events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted financial impact of the past condition recurring, determining a threshold for each group, identifying current or forecasted conditions, and determining the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted conditions by comparing the current or forecasted conditions with the thresholds.

## Claims

### Claim 1

A method of graphically displaying predicted financial impacts of environmental conditions over geographic regions, the method comprising:
receiving, using control circuitry, information indicative of past environmental events in a plurality of locations, each of the past environmental events including one or more past environmental conditions;
receiving, using the control circuitry, information indicative of the observable financial impact of at least some of the past environmental events;
for each of the plurality of locations and each of the one or more environmental conditions:
determining, using the control circuitry, a recurrence interval of each of the past environmental conditions in the plurality of locations;
determining, using the control circuitry, correlations between the past environmental conditions and the observable financial impact of the past environmental events;
calculating, using the control circuitry, a predicted observable financial impact of each of the past environmental conditions;
calculating, using the control circuitry, a predicted financial impact of each of the past environmental conditions recurring by multiplying the predicted observable financial impact the past environmental event by the recurrence interval of the past environmental condition;
grouping, using the control circuitry, the past environmental events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted financial impact of the past environmental condition recurring; and
determining, using the control circuitry, a threshold for each of the plurality of groups;
receiving, using the control circuitry, current or forecasted environmental conditions;
determining, using the control circuitry, the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted environmental conditions by comparing the current or forecasted environmental conditions with the thresholds determined for each of the groups in the plurality of locations of the current or forecasted environmental conditions; and
generating for display, in a graphical user interface, a map of the plurality of locations that graphically describes the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted environmental conditions.

### Claim 2 (depends on 1)

The method of claim 1, wherein the correlation between the past environmental condition and the observable financial impact of the past environmental event is determined using a regression algorithm.

### Claim 3 (depends on 1)

The method of claim 1, further comprising: weighting the observable financial impact of past environmental events by population.

### Claim 4 (depends on 1)

The method of claim 1, further comprising: interpolating the thresholds for the plurality of locations to determine thresholds for additional locations.

### Claim 5 (depends on 4)

The method of claim 4, wherein the thresholds are interpolated using a Kriging technique.

### Claim 6 (depends on 1)

The method of claim 1, wherein determining thresholds for each of the one or more environmental conditions comprises determining thresholds for each of a plurality of environmental conditions and each of the plurality of locations.

### Claim 7 (depends on 6)

The method of claim 6, wherein the plurality of environmental conditions include at least one of pollution, deforestation, depopulation, inhospitableness, biodegradable pollution, nonbiodegradable pollution, air pollution, noise pollution, sound pollution, thermal pollution, or water pollution.

### Claim 8

A system for graphically displaying predicted financial impact of environmental conditions over geographic regions, comprising:
one or more databases that store:
information indicative of past environmental events in a plurality of locations, each of the past environmental events including one or more past environmental conditions; and
information indicative of the observable financial impact of at least some of the past environmental events;
an analysis unit that, for each of the plurality of locations and each of the one or more environmental conditions:
determines a recurrence interval of each of the past environmental conditions in each of the plurality of locations;
determines correlations between the past environmental conditions and the observable financial impact of the past environmental events;
calculates a predicted observable financial impact of each of the past environmental conditions;
calculates a predicted financial impact of each of the past environmental conditions recurring by multiplying the predicted observable financial impact the past environmental condition by the recurrence interval of the past environmental condition;
groups the past environmental events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted financial impact of the past environmental condition recurring;
determines a threshold for each of the plurality of groups;
receives current or forecasted environmental conditions;
determines the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted environmental conditions by comparing the current or forecasted environmental conditions with the thresholds determined for each of the groups in the plurality of locations of the current or forecasted environmental events; and
generates for display, in a graphical user interface, a map of the plurality of locations that graphically describes the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted environmental conditions.

### Claim 9 (depends on 8)

The system of claim 8, wherein the analysis unit is further configured to determine the correlation between the past environmental condition and the observable financial impact of the past environmental event using a regression algorithm.

### Claim 10 (depends on 8)

The system of claim 8, wherein the analysis unit is further configured to weight the observable financial impact of past environmental events by population.

### Claim 11 (depends on 8)

The system of claim 8, wherein the analysis unit is further configured to interpolate the thresholds for the plurality of locations to determine thresholds for additional locations.

### Claim 12 (depends on 11)

The system of claim 11, wherein the analysis unit is further configured to interpolate the thresholds using a Kriging technique.

### Claim 13 (depends on 8)

The system of claim 8, wherein the analysis unit is configured to determine thresholds for each of a plurality of environmental conditions in each of a plurality of locations.

### Claim 14 (depends on 13)

The system of claim 13, wherein the plurality of environmental conditions include at least one of pollution, deforestation, depopulation, inhospitableness, biodegradable pollution, nonbiodegradable pollution, air pollution, noise pollution, sound pollution, thermal pollution, or water pollution.

### Claim 15

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium for graphically displaying predicted financial impacts of environmental conditions over geographic regions storing instructions that, when executed by a computer process, cause a computing device to:
receive information indicative of past environmental events in a plurality of locations, each of the past environmental events including one or more past environmental conditions;
receive information indicative of the observable financial impact of at least some of the past environmental events;
for each of the plurality of locations and each of the one or more environmental conditions:
determine a recurrence interval of each of the past environmental conditions in each of the plurality of locations;
determine correlations between the past environmental conditions and the observable financial impact of the past environmental events;
calculate a predicted observable financial impact of each of the past environmental conditions;
calculate a predicted financial impact of each of the past environmental conditions recurring by multiplying the predicted observable financial impact the past environmental condition by the recurrence interval of the past environmental condition;
group the past environmental events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted financial impact of the past environmental condition recurring; and
determine threshold for each of the plurality of groups;
receive current or forecasted environmental conditions;
determine the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted environmental conditions by comparing the current or forecasted environmental conditions with the thresholds determined for each of the groups in the plurality of locations of the current or forecasted environmental events; and
generating for display, in a graphical user interface, a map of the plurality of locations that graphically describes the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted environmental conditions.

### Claim 16

A method of graphically displaying predicted financial impacts of geologic conditions over geographic regions, the method comprising:
receiving, using control circuitry, information indicative of past geologic events in a plurality of locations, each of the past geologic events including one or more past geologic conditions;
receiving, using the control circuitry, information indicative of the observable financial impact of at least some of the past geologic events;
for each of the plurality of locations and each of the one or more geologic conditions:
determining, using the control circuitry, a recurrence interval of each of the past geologic conditions in each of the plurality of locations;
determining, using the control circuitry, correlations between the past geologic conditions and the observable financial impact of the past geologic events;
calculating, using the control circuitry, a predicted observable financial impact of each of the past geologic conditions;
calculating, using the control circuitry, a predicted financial impact of each of the past geologic conditions recurring by multiplying the predicted observable financial impact the past geologic condition by the recurrence interval of the past geologic condition;
grouping, using the control circuitry, the past geologic events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted financial impact of the past geologic condition recurring; and
determining, using the control circuitry, a threshold for each of the plurality of groups;
receiving, using the control circuitry, current or forecasted geologic conditions;
determining, using the control circuitry, the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted geologic conditions by comparing the current or forecasted geologic conditions with the thresholds determined for each of the groups in the plurality of locations of the current or forecasted geologic events; and
generating for display, in a graphical user interface, a map of the plurality of locations that graphically describes the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted geologic conditions.

### Claim 17 (depends on 16)

The method of claim 16, wherein the correlation between the past geologic condition and the observable financial impact of the past geologic event is determined using regression algorithm.

### Claim 18 (depends on 16)

The method of claim 16, further comprising: weighting the observable financial impact of past geologic events by population.

### Claim 19 (depends on 16)

The method of claim 16, further comprising: interpolating the thresholds for the plurality of locations to determine thresholds for additional locations.

### Claim 20 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19, wherein the thresholds are interpolated using a Kriging technique.

### Claim 21 (depends on 16)

The method of claim 16, wherein determining thresholds for each of the one or more geologic conditions comprises determining thresholds for each of a plurality of geologic conditions and each of the plurality of locations.

### Claim 22 (depends on 21)

The method of claim 21, wherein the plurality of geologic conditions include at least one of erosion, glaciation, volcanic eruption or emission, earthquake, tsunami, avalanche, landslide, or mudslide.

### Claim 23

A system for graphically displaying predicted financial impacts of geologic conditions over geographic regions, comprising:
one or more databases that store:
information indicative of past geologic events in a plurality of locations, each of the past geologic events including one or more past geologic conditions; and
information indicative of the observable financial impact of at least some of the past geologic events;
an analysis unit that, for each of the plurality of locations and each of the one or more geologic conditions:
determines a recurrence interval of each of the past environmental conditions in each of the plurality of locations;
determines correlations between the past geologic conditions and the observable financial impact of the past geologic events;
calculates a predicted observable financial impact of each of the past geologic conditions;
calculates a predicted financial impact of each of the past geologic conditions recurring by multiplying the predicted observable financial impact the past geologic condition by the recurrence interval of the past geologic condition;
groups the past geologic events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted financial impact of the past geologic condition recurring;
determines a threshold for each of the plurality of groups;
receives current or forecasted geologic conditions;
determines the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted geologic conditions by comparing the current or forecasted geologic conditions with the thresholds determined for each of the groups in the plurality of locations of the current or forecasted geologic events; and
generating for display, in a graphical user interface, a map of the plurality of locations that graphically describes the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted geologic conditions.

### Claim 24 (depends on 23)

The system of claim 23, wherein the analysis unit is further configured to determine the correlation between the past geologic condition and the observable financial impact of the past geologic event using a regression algorithm.

### Claim 25 (depends on 23)

The system of claim 23, wherein the analysis unit is further configured to weight the observable financial impact of past geologic events by population.

### Claim 26 (depends on 23)

The system of claim 23, wherein the analysis unit is further configured to interpolate the thresholds for the plurality of locations to determine thresholds for additional locations.

### Claim 27 (depends on 26)

The system of claim 26, wherein the analysis unit is further configured to interpolate the thresholds using a Kriging technique.

### Claim 28 (depends on 23)

The system of claim 23, wherein the analysis unit is configured to determine thresholds for each of a plurality of geologic conditions in each of a plurality of locations.

### Claim 29 (depends on 28)

The system of claim 28, wherein the plurality of geologic conditions include at least one of erosion, glaciation, volcanic eruption or emission, earthquake, tsunami, avalanche, landslide, or mudslide.

### Claim 30

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium for graphically displaying predicted financial impacts of geologic conditions over geographic regions storing instructions that, when executed by a computer process, cause a computing device to:
receive information indicative of past geologic events in a plurality of locations, each of the past geologic events including one or more past geologic conditions;
receive information indicative of the observable financial impact of at least some of the past geologic events;
for each of the plurality of locations and each of the one or more geologic conditions:
determine a recurrence interval of each of the past geologic conditions in each of the plurality of locations;
determine correlation between the past geologic conditions and the observable financial impact of the past geologic events;
calculate a predicted observable financial impact of each of the past geologic conditions;
calculate a predicted financial impact of each of the past geologic conditions recurring by multiplying the predicted observable financial impact the past geologic condition by the recurrence interval of the past geologic condition;
group the past geologic events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted financial impact of the past geologic condition recurring; and
determine threshold for each of the plurality of groups;
receive current or forecasted geologic conditions; and
determine the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted geologic conditions by comparing the current or forecasted geologic conditions with the thresholds determined for each of the groups in the plurality of locations of the current or forecasted geologic events; and
generate for display, in a graphical user interface, a map of the plurality of locations that graphically describes the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted geologic conditions.