Methods, systems, and media for estimating the causal effect of different content exposure levels

A system for presenting content, the system comprising:

• a memory;
• and
• a hardware processor that, when executing computer executable instructions stored in the memory, is configured to:
• receive a set of users;
• extract impression information including timestamp information and exposure time information for one or more users in the set of users from an accessed impression log;
• extract conversion event information for the one or more users in the set of users;
• place a first subset of users into a test group and a second subset of users into a control group, wherein the first subset of users in the test group includes users that received at least one viewable content item on an associated user device and wherein the second subset of users in the control group include remaining users that were not placed in the first subset of users;
• determine a plurality of converter users from the test group by generating a mapping of a user identifier for each of the first subset of users with a vendor user identifier, matching extracted impression information with extract conversion event information using the mapping, and selecting the plurality of converter users from the first subset of users in which the extracted impression information of that user matched with extracted conversion event information of that user;
• define a fixed time window that occurs prior to a conversion action from the conversion event information;
• determine for each of the plurality of converter users in the fixed time window, content viewability information that includes total time information that a converter user was exposed to a content item during the fixed time window;
• generate a first plurality of temporal distributions based on the content viewability information for each of the plurality of converter users, wherein each of the first plurality of temporal distributions is a temporal distribution between exposure to a first content item and the conversion action for the converter user;
• determine a plurality of non-converter users that each have one of a second plurality of temporal distributions having similar distribution characteristics to the first plurality of temporal distributions associated with the plurality of converter users;
• determine a lift associated with a plurality of content items based on a comparison of a first conversion rate of the plurality of converter users with a second conversion rate of the plurality of non-converter users;
• and
• automatically place at least a portion of the non-converter users into an exposure profile that causes a modification in presentation of the plurality of content items based on the determined lift.

A non-transitory computer-readable medium containing computer-executable instructions that, when executed by a hardware processor, cause the hardware processor to perform a method for presenting content, the method comprising:

• receiving a set of users;
• extracting impression information including timestamp information and exposure time information for one or more users in the set of users from an accessed impression log;
• extracting conversion event information for the one or more users in the set of users;
• placing a first subset of users into a test group and a second subset of users into a control group, wherein the first subset of users in the test group includes users that received at least one viewable content item on an associated user device and wherein the second subset of users in the control group include remaining users that were not placed in the first subset of users;
• determining a plurality of converter users from the test group by generating a mapping of a user identifier for each of the first subset of users with a vendor user identifier, matching extracted impression information with extract conversion event information using the mapping, and selecting the plurality of converter users from the first subset of users in which the extracted impression information of that user matched with extracted conversion event information of that user;
• defining a fixed time window that occurs prior to a conversion action from the conversion event information;
• determining for each of the plurality of converter users in the fixed time window, content viewability information that includes total time information that a converter user was exposed to a content item during the fixed time window;
• generating a first plurality of temporal distributions based on the content viewability information for each of the plurality of converter users, wherein each of the first plurality of temporal distributions is a temporal distribution between exposure to a first content item and the conversion action for the converter user;
• determining a plurality of non-converter users that each have one of a second plurality of temporal distributions having similar distribution characteristics to the first plurality of temporal distributions associated with the plurality of converter users;
• determining a lift associated with a plurality of content items based on a comparison of a first conversion rate of the plurality of converter users with a second conversion rate of the plurality of non-converter users;
• and
• automatically placing at least a portion of the non-converter users into an exposure profile that causes a modification in presentation of the plurality of content items based on the determined lift.