Prediction system and prediction method
AssigneeHitachi, Ltd.
InventorsMasato Utsumi, Tohru Watanabe, Ikuo Shigemori, Hiroshi Iimura, Hiroaki Ogawa
Life of this patent
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Abstract
Provided is a prediction system for calculating a prediction value related to a prediction target to which prediction in an arbitrary period is adapted. The prediction system includes a storage device which records a plurality of data used to calculate the prediction value and a control device which includes a predetermined operation model and applies the plurality of data to the operation model to calculate the prediction value. The control device changes the operation model, on the basis of information of respective temporal attributes of the plurality of data.
Claims13
A system for calculating a prediction value related to a prediction target of future supply and demand of power to which prediction in an arbitrary period is adapted, the system comprising:
- a storage device which records a plurality of data used to calculate the prediction value;
- and
- a control device includes a predetermined operation model, applies the plurality of data to the operation model to calculate the prediction value, and changes the predetermined operation model using data determined based on respective temporal attributes of the plurality of data, wherein
- the control device includes:
- a representative curve calculation module which calculates a curve showing a temporal transition of the prediction value of the prediction target in the arbitrary period;
- a correction value calculation module which calculates the prediction value on the basis of correction of the curve calculated by the representative curve calculation module;
- and
- a model identification module which changes the predetermined operation model to at least one of:
- a curve correction operation model for correcting the curve,
- a curve calculation operation model for calculating the curve, and
- a correction value calculation operation model for calculating a correction value of the curve, on the basis of:
- the respective temporal attributes of the plurality of data, or
- the respective variation ranges of the plurality of data;
- and
- a facility management device that:
- formulates an operation plan of a power generation facility based on the prediction value calculated by the operation model of the control device, and
- transmits a control signal and the formulated operation plan to the control device, wherein
- the control device subsequently calculates a control value of the power generation facility and executes control of the power generation facility;
- and executes the formulated operation plan.
A method for causing a control device to calculate a prediction value related to a prediction target of future supply and demand of power to which prediction in an arbitrary period is adapted, the method comprising:
- reading, using the control device, a plurality of data used to calculate the prediction value from a storage device;
- applying, using the control device, a predetermined operation model to the plurality of data to calculate the prediction value;
- changing, using the control device, the predetermined operation model based on respective temporal attributes of the plurality of data;
- changing, using the control device, the plurality of data to be applied to the new operation model based on respective variation ranges of the plurality of data;
- calculating, using the control device, a curve showing a temporal transition of the prediction value of the prediction target in the arbitrary period,
- calculating, using the control device, the prediction value on the basis of correction of the calculated curve, wherein
- the predetermined operation model is changed to at least one of:
- a curve correction operation model for correcting the curve,
- a curve calculation operation model for calculating the curve, or
- a correction value calculation operation model for calculating a correction value of the curve, on the basis of:
- the respective temporal attributes of the plurality of data, or
- the respective variation ranges of the plurality of data,
- formulating, using a facility management device, an operation plan of a power generation facility based on the prediction value calculated by the operation model of the control device,
- transmitting, using the facility management device, a control signal and the formulated operation plan to the control device,
- calculating, using the control device, a control value of the power generation facility based on the formulated operation plan;
- executing, using the control device, control of the power generation facility;
- and
- executing, using the facility management device, the formulated operation plan.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.