Adaptive in-application physical product offers

A method comprising:

• receiving at a server a login request from gaming software on a computing device, the gaming software configured to display an offer for a physical product via a user interface of the computing device, the user request coming from a first user having a first account;
• determining to provide the offer for the physical product to the gaming software for display by the computing device at a specified time based at least in part on conditions of the gaming software session and an account history of the first account;
• providing, from the server to the gaming software, the offer for the physical product for display on the user interface of the computing device at the specified time, wherein providing the offer for a physical product comprises determining that a second user, who interacted with the first user through the gaming software, ordered the physical product, wherein providing the offer for a physical product is further based at least in part on a length of time it will take to deliver the physical product, and wherein providing, to the gaming software, the offer for a physical product comprises using a routine estimation model to predict an out-of-game activity at a particular time and to determine when to provide the offer prior to the predicted out-of-game activity and wherein the offer is in response to the predicted out-of-game activity, the model having been generated at least in part by:
• collecting data describing historical activity of the first account and describing out-of-game activity for the first user and for users similar to the first user obtained from at least one social network;
• filtering the data based at least in part on start time and duration of gaming software sessions to determine filtered data;
• and
• training the routine estimation model using the filtered data;
• receiving an indication of a user interaction with the offer for the physical product, and
• in response to the indication, taking an action in a process of ordering the physical product.

A method comprising:

• receiving at a server a user request from an application on a computing device, the application configured to display an offer for a physical product via a user interface of the computing device, the user request coming from a first user having a first account;
• determining to provide the offer for the physical product to the application for display on the computing device at a specified time based at least in part on conditions of the application session and an account history of the first account;
• providing, from the server to the application, the offer for the physical product for display on the user interface of the computing device at the specified time, wherein providing the offer for a physical product comprises determining that a second user, who interacted with the first user through the gaming software, ordered the physical product, wherein providing the offer for a physical product is further based at least in part on a length of time it will take to deliver the physical product, and wherein providing, to the gaming software, the offer for a physical product comprises using a routine estimation model to predict an out-of-game activity at a particular time and to determine when to provide the offer prior to the predicted out-of-game activity and wherein the offer is in response to the predicted out-of-game activity, the model having been generated at least in part by:
• collecting data describing historical activity of the first account and describing out-of-game activity for the first user and for users similar to the first user obtained from at least one social network;
• filtering the data based at least in part on start time and duration of gaming software sessions to determine filtered data;
• and
• training the routine estimation model using the filtered data;
• receiving an indication of a user interaction with the offer for a physical product, and
• in response to the indication, initiating a process of ordering the physical product.

A system comprising:

• one or more computers and one or more storage devices on which are stored instructions that are operable, when executed by the one or more computers, to cause the one or more computers to perform operations comprising:
• receiving a user request to start a gaming software session in gaming software, the user request coming from a first user having a first account, the gaming software configured to run on a user device and configured to provide, via a user interface of the user device, an offer for a physical product;
• providing, to the gaming software, an offer for a physical product for display at a specified time by the user interface of the user device, wherein the offer is determined by an routine estimation model and based at least in part on historical gaming activity of the first account and prior responses to similar offers by at least one of the first user and by other users, wherein providing the offer for a physical product comprises determining that a second user, who interacted with the first user through the gaming software, ordered the physical product, wherein providing the offer for a physical product is further based at least in part on a length of time it will take to deliver the physical product, and wherein the routine estimation model is configured to predict an out-of-game activity at a particular time and to determine when to provide the offer prior to the predicted out-of-game activity and wherein the offer is in response to the predicted out-of-game activity, the model having been generated at least in part by:
• collecting data describing historical activity of the first account and describing out-of-game activity for the first user and for users similar to the first user obtained from at least one social network;
• filtering the data based at least in part on start time and duration of gaming software sessions to determine filtered data;
• and
• training the routine estimation model using the filtered data;
• detecting a user interaction with the offer for the physical product, and
• in response to the detection, taking an action in a process of ordering the physical product.