Ranking messages of conversation graphs in a messaging platform using predictive outcomes

A system for ranking messages of conversation graphs in a messaging platform using predictive outcomes, the system including:

• a conversation graph manager configured to generate a conversation graph based on a reply structure of messages exchanged on a messaging platform, the conversation graph including a data structure of messages of a conversation;
• a timeline manager configured to provide a stream of messages, over a network, in a timeline of a user on a client application, the timeline manager configured to receive a conversation view request, over the network, from the client application;
• an engagement predictor configured to determine, in response to the conversation view request, a plurality of predictive outcomes for each of a plurality of messages of the conversation graph using predictive models, the plurality of predictive outcomes including a reciprocal engagement probability, a positive engagement probability, and a negative engagement probability;
• and
• an engagement scorer configured to compute an engagement value for each of the plurality of messages using the predictive outcomes for a respective message,
• the timeline manager configured to rank the plurality of messages using the engagement values, and provide, over the network, at least a subset of the plurality of messages to be rendered on the timeline according to the rank.

A non-transitory computer-readable medium storing executable instructions that when executed by at least one processor are configured to cause the at least one processor to:

• receive, over a network, a conversation view request for messages of a conversation graph stored on a messaging platform, the conversation graph including a data structure of messages of a conversation;
• select a candidate subset of messages from the conversation graph;
• determine a plurality of predictive outcomes for each message of the candidate subset using predictive model, the plurality of predictive outcomes including a reciprocal engagement probability, a positive engagement probability, and a negative engagement probability, the reciprocal engagement probability including a probability value that the messaging platform is predicted to receive a reply to a respective message of the candidate subset;
• compute an engagement value for each message of the candidate subset using the predictive outcomes;
• rank the plurality of messages using the engagement values;
• and
• transmit at least a subset of the plurality of messages to be rendered on a client application according to the rank.