Inter-arrival times triggered, probabilistic risk transfer system and a corresponding method thereof

A method for implementing an automated, inter-arrival-time-based system for automated predicting and time-correlated, exposure-based signaling, steering and operating of catastrophic risk-event driven or triggered, automated systems triggered by measured occurrence of catastrophic risk events, having an occurrence rate with a complex clustering structure, the method comprising:

• measuring, by measuring stations or sensors in loco or satellite image processing, occurring risk-events by measured sensory data, the measuring stations or sensors comprising at least seismometers or seismographs for measuring any ground motion, including seismic waves generated by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and other seismic sources, and/or stream gauges in key locations across a specified region, measuring during times of flooding how high water has risen above the gauges to determine flood levels, and/or measuring devices for establishing wind strength, and/or sensors for barometric pressure measurements and/or ocean surface water temperature measurements determining direction a hurricane will travel and potential hurricane's intensity, and/or satellite image measurements estimating hurricane strength by comparing the images with physical characteristics of the hurricane;
• transmitting, by a data transmission network, the measured sensory data of the measuring stations or sensors to a central core circuit;
• measuring, by circuitry, the occurring risk-events by the measured sensory data and assign the occurring risk-events to a historic hazard set comprising the measured event parameters for each assigned risk-event, wherein to capture and measure the appropriate measured sensory data, the central core circuit comprises a risk-event driven core aggregator with measuring data-driven triggers for triggering, capturing, and monitoring in data flow pathway of the measuring stations or sensors;
• providing, by the circuitry, the risk-event driven or triggered systems with corresponding risk-exposure or occurrence-prediction parameters or risk-transfer parameters by signal transfer of the central core circuit, for the automated predicting and exposure-based signaling, steering and operating of catastrophic risk-event driven or triggered, automated systems;
• generating, by the circuitry, an event loss set based on measured frequencies with associated losses of said risk-events of the hazard set, each of said risk-events creating a set specific loss;
• assembling, by the circuitry, a period loss set recording event losses of the event loss set and generating, by the circuitry, time-stamps corresponding to the event losses, wherein the period loss set provides a corresponding time-based log record of the measured events of the event loss set, wherein the time-stamps include a sequence of encode time data and are generated and allocated to each event of the event loss set, and wherein a specific time-stamp identifies an occurrence as a point in time at which a specific event is measured;
• structuring, by the circuitry, estimated time-stamps using an estimated or predefined distribution of corresponding generated inter-arrival times parameters, wherein an inter-arrival times parameter captures a waiting time between consecutive events of the period loss set, and wherein the waiting times measure time intervals between two successive measured occurrences of risk-events, the occurrence of risk-events being trackable over time by the time intervals;
• and
• assessing and generating, by the circuitry, the corresponding risk-transfer parameters for the signal-transfer based on said period loss set comprising the time-stamps and losses for a specific time frame.