Insolation probability distribution analysis method, insolation probability distribution analysis system, insolation probability distribution analysis program product, insolation normalization statistical analysis method, insolation normalization statistical analysis system, and insolation normalization statistical analysis program product
AssigneeHide Housing Corporation
InventorsHideyuki Takahashi, Yoshio Horiuchi
Life of this patent
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Abstract
Statistical processing of insolation data for calculation prediction which requires calculation with conditional branching using an insolation as a variable, or analyze a histogram of an insolation probability distribution based on a probabilistic analysis and mathematically model the insolation as a calculation formula. The techniques described herein can be used to help predict the solar power generation by a solar power generation system.
Claims11
An insolation probability distribution analysis method used in solar power generation by a solar power generation system, comprising:
- a processor of a computer executing program instructions that when executed cause the processor to:
- receive an input of insolation data measured by a measurement device indicating an amount of solar radiation reaching a solar panel of the solar power generation system, and storing the insolation data in a database;
- determine an insolation probability distribution based on the insolation data;
- determine an insolation estimation model that consists of a first mode and a first deviation associated with a first probability density function, a second mode and a second deviation associated with a second probability density function, a distribution coefficient of the first probability density function, and a distribution coefficient of the second probability density function based on the insolation probability distribution, the first probability density function, and the second probability density function, and storing the insolation estimation model in the database;
- store an integrated value indicating an overlap of probability distributions based on the insolation estimation model in the database as a degree of superposition, and
- predict the solar power generation by the solar power generation system based on the insolation data,
- wherein the first probability density function and the second probability density function are Gaussian functions.
An insolation probability distribution analysis system used in solar power generation by a solar power generation system, comprising:
- a processor of a computer;
- and
- program instructions that are executable by the processor that when executed cause the processor to:
- receive an input of insolation data measured by a measurement device indicating an amount of solar radiation reaching a solar panel of the solar power generation system, and store the insolation data in a database;
- determine an insolation probability distribution based on the insolation data;
- determine an insolation estimation model that consists of a first mode and a first deviation associated with a first probability density function, a second mode and a second deviation associated with a second probability density function, a distribution coefficient of the first probability density function, and a distribution coefficient of the second probability density function based on the insolation probability distribution, the first probability density function, and the second probability density function, and storing the insolation estimation model in the database;
- store an integrated value indicating an overlap of probability distributions based on the insolation estimation model in the database as a degree of superposition, and
- predict the solar power generation by the solar power generation system based on the insolation data,
- wherein the first probability density function and the second probability density function are Gaussian functions.
An insolation probability distribution analysis program stored on a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, wherein the insolation probability distribution analysis program is used in solar power generation by a solar power generation system, and wherein the insolation probability distribution analysis program when executed causes a computer to:
- receive an input of insolation data measured by a measurement device indicating an amount of solar radiation reaching a solar panel of the solar power generation system, and store the insolation data in a database;
- determine an insolation probability distribution based on the insolation data;
- determine an insolation estimation model that consists of a first mode and a first deviation associated with a first probability density function, a second mode and a second deviation associated with a second probability density function, a distribution coefficient of the first probability density function, and a distribution coefficient of the second probability density function based on the insolation probability distribution, the first probability density function, and the second probability density function, and storing the insolation estimation model in the database;
- store an integrated value indicating an overlap of probability distributions based on the insolation estimation model in the database as a degree of superposition, and
- predict the solar power generation by the solar power generation system based on the insolation data,
- wherein the first probability density function and the second probability density function are Gaussian functions.
An insolation normalization statistical analysis method used in solar power generation by a solar power generation system, comprising:
- a processor of a computer executing program instructions that when executed cause the processor to:
- receive an input of insolation data measured by a measurement device indicating an amount of solar radiation reaching a solar panel of the solar power generation system;
- extract a reference insolation by performing interpolation based on polynomial approximation into the insolation data, determine a dimensionless amount that is a ratio of an insolation and the reference insolation, and determine an insolation probability distribution that uses the dimensionless amount as a random variable based on the insolation data, and
- predict the solar power generation by the solar power generation system based on the insolation data.
An insolation normalization statistical analysis system used in solar power generation by a solar power generation system, comprising:
- a processor of a computer;
- and
- program instructions that are executable by the processor that when executed cause the processor to:
- receive an input of insolation data measured by a measurement device indicating an amount of solar radiation reaching a solar panel of the solar power generation system;
- extract a reference insolation by performing interpolation based on polynomial approximation into the insolation data, determine a dimensionless amount that is a ratio of an insolation and the reference insolation, and determine an insolation probability distribution that uses the dimensionless amount as a random variable based on the insolation data, and
- predict the solar power generation by the solar power generation system based on the insolation data.
An insolation normalization statistical analysis program stored on a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, wherein the insolation normalization statistical analysis program is used in solar power generation by a solar power generation system, and wherein the insolation normalization statistical analysis program when executed causes a computer to:
- receive an input of insolation data measured by a measurement device indicating an amount of solar radiation reaching a solar panel of the solar power generation system;
- extract a reference insolation by performing interpolation based on polynomial approximation into the insolation data, determine a dimensionless amount that is a ratio of an insolation and the reference insolation, and determine an insolation probability distribution that uses the dimensionless amount as a random variable based on the insolation data, and
- predict the solar power generation by the solar power generation system based on the insolation data.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.