A system for predicting an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), combined with a stored application, comprising:
- an input interface configured to receive a request from a patient for prediction on an occurrence of an acute exacerbation of COPD in patient;
- a collector configured to gather variables from a medical record integration server for collecting patient medical information from all available hospital servers that store medical history data and clinical aspect data of COPD patients, a virus information server, and a weather data server, and generate at least one specification constituted of a data set comprising of the variables at every point of time when the variables selected by a prediction model of the patient occurred in response to a prediction request on the occurrence of an acute exacerbation of COPD in patient from the input interface, the specification being generated by collecting respiratory virus data and weather information from the virus information server and the weather data server that exist before and after the medical record is generated and by attaching the respiratory virus data and the weather information to the specification at the time of the occurrence of the acute exacerbation of COPD in a form of variables;
- a model configurer configured to determine variables and coefficients of the parameters connected to the variables to set the prediction model for an acute exacerbation of COPD, wherein the variables and coefficients of the parameters are selected from the gathered variables and its connected parameters from the collector selected on a predetermined condition;
- an analyzer configured to input the variables of the specification and the parameter coefficients associated with the variables of the patient to the model set by the model configurer to predict an occurrence of the acute exacerbation of the COPD in patient;
- an updater configured to update the prediction model and provide the updated model to the analyzer;
- a provider configured to provide a prediction result value to at least one of the members of a group consisting of the patient, the medical record integration server, and the hospital server;
- and
- a storage configured to store a prediction result value obtained by the collector and an actual result value on the actual occurrence of the acute exacerbation of COPD in the patient,
- wherein the variables determined on the predetermined condition at least comprise medical history data acquired from the medical record integration server and respiratory virus data acquired from the virus information server, the medical history data at least including a prescribed COPD medication, a frequency of medication intakes, a frequency of emergency room visits, a frequency of hospitalizations, a number of days in care, a number of days on treatment, and a frequency of occurrences of an acute exacerbation of COPD in patient of the COPD patient.