Managing compute resource usage based on prior usage

A computer-implemented method comprising:

• obtaining, by a service of a provider network, a first resource usage value associated with a compute instance hosted on a computer system within the provider network, the first resource usage value obtained from an agent monitoring resource usage of the compute instance, wherein the first resource usage value represents an amount of a resource of the computer system used by the compute instance over a first period of time when the compute instance operated under a first resource usage limit;
• generating a second resource usage limit associated with the compute instance for a second period of time subsequent to the first period of time, wherein the second resource usage limit is determined based at least in part on the first resource usage value and a target amount of resource usage, and wherein the second resource usage limit is larger than the first resource usage limit and is also larger than the target amount of resource usage;
• and
• sending the second resource usage limit to the computer system.

A system comprising:

• an agent implemented by a computer system coupled to a provider network, the computer system hosting a compute instance, wherein the agent is to send a first resource usage value representing an amount of a resource of the computer system used by the compute instance over a first period of time when the compute instance operated under a first resource usage limit;
• and
• a usage manager service implemented by a second one or more processing devices, the usage manager service including instructions that upon execution cause the second one or more processing devices to:
• obtain the first resource usage value from the agent via the provider network;
• generate a second resource usage limit associated with the compute instance for a second period of time subsequent to the first period of time, wherein the second resource usage limit is determined based at least in part on the first resource usage value and a target amount of resource usage, and wherein the second resource usage limit is larger than the first resource usage limit and is also larger than the target amount of resource usage;
• and
• send the second resource usage limit to the computer system.