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US 10,819,116 B2Granted
Forecasting solar power generation using real-time power data
AssigneeInternational Business Machines Corporation
InventorsIldar Khabibrakhmanov, Tarun Kumar, Mark A. Lavin, Rui Zhang
Life of this patent
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Abstract
Embodiments are directed to a computer-implemented method, computer system, and computer program product for forecasting power generation. The method includes receiving a first power generation forecast. A second power generation forecast is received, along with actual observed power generation. A model is created for the observed power generation based on the second power generation forecast. A third power generation forecast is created using the model for the observed power generation, the second power generation forecast, and the first power generation forecast.
Claims6
A computer-implemented method of forecasting power generation, the method comprising:
- receiving, using a processor, a first power generation forecast;
- creating, using the processor, a second power generation forecast, wherein the second power generation forecast is created by:
- analyzing, using the processor, a set of historical power generation data;
- determining, using the processor, a set of clusters, wherein each cluster of the set of clusters represents power generated during a time period;
- receiving, using the processor, power generation data for a portion of the time period;
- identifying, using the processor, a cluster of the set of clusters that contains historical power generation data that is most similar to the power generation data;
- and
- forecasting, using the processor, power generation for a remainder of the time period, using the historical power generation data of the cluster of the set of clusters to determine the second power generation forecast;
- receiving, using the processor, an observed power generation;
- creating, using the processor, a model for the observed power generation based on the second power generation forecast;
- calculating a first error between the first power generation forecast and the observed power generation;
- calculating a second error between the model for the observed power generation and the observed power generation;
- and
- creating, using the processor, a third power generation forecast based on a determination that the first error is lower than the second error, the third power generation forecast comprises a weighted average of the second power generation forecast and the model for the observed power generation.
11 more elements
A computer system for forecasting power generation, the system comprising:
- a memory;
- and
- a processor system communicatively coupled to the memory;
- the processor system configured to perform a method comprising:
- receiving a first power generation forecast;
- creating a second power generation forecast by:
- analyzing a set of historical power generation data;
- determining a set of clusters, wherein each cluster of the set of clusters represents power generated during a time period;
- receiving power generation data for a portion of the time period;
- identifying a cluster of the set of clusters that contains historical power generation data that is most similar to the power generation data;
- and
- forecasting power generation for a remainder of the time period, using the historical power generation data of the cluster of the set of clusters to determine the second power generation forecast;
- receiving observed power generation;
- creating a model for the observed power generation based on the second power generation forecast;
- calculating a first error between the first power generation forecast and the observed power generation;
- calculating a second error between the model for the observed power generation and the observed power generation;
- and
- creating a third power generation forecast based on a determination that the first error is lower than the second error, the third power generation forecast comprises a weighted average of the second power generation forecast and the model for the observed power generation.
15 more elements
A computer program product for forecasting power generation comprising:
- a computer-readable storage medium having program instructions embodied therewith, the program instructions readable by a processor system to cause the processor system to perform a method comprising:
- receiving a first power generation forecast;
- creating a second power generation forecast by:
- analyzing a set of historical power generation data;
- determining a set of clusters, wherein each cluster of the set of clusters represents power generated during a time period;
- receiving power generation data for a portion of the time period;
- identifying a cluster of the set of clusters that contains historical power generation data that is most similar to the power generation data;
- and
- forecasting power generation for a remainder of the time period, using the historical power generation data of the cluster of the set of clusters to determine the second power generation forecast;
- receiving observed power generation;
- creating a model for the observed power generation based on the second power generation forecast;
- calculating a first error between the first power generation forecast and the observed power generation;
- calculating a second error between the model for the observed power generation and the observed power generation;
- and
- creating a third power generation forecast based on a determination that the first error is lower than the second error, the third power generation forecast comprises a weighted average of the second power generation forecast and the model for the observed power generation.
12 more elements
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.