US 10,761,242 B1Granted

Systems and methods for forecasting lightning and severe storms

AssigneeBoard of Trustees of the Unviersity of Alabama, for and on behalf of the University of Alabama in Huntsville

InventorJohn R. Mecikalski

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Abstract

A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives weather data from a satellite or other source, such as radar. The weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds. For each cumulus cloud identified, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests and feeds the results into formulas derived based on measurements from current and past weather events. The model determines a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus cloud will produce precipitation and/or lightning during the time period. The predictions of the weather forecasting logic may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas.

Claims22

Dependent claims

A lightning forecasting system, comprising:

memory for storing satellite image data and weather data, the weather data indicating atmospheric conditions within a geographic region;
at least one processor configured to identify a cumulus cloud object within a plurality samples of the satellite image data, the at least one processor configured to associate portions of the weather data with the identified cumulus cloud object based on locations of the identified cumulus cloud object within the samples of the satellite image data, the at least one processor further configured to determine, based on the associated portions of the weather data, a plurality of interest fields indicating whether a cumulus cloud represented by the cumulus cloud object is likely to produce lightning in the future, wherein the plurality of interest fields include at least a first interest field and a second interest field, and wherein the first interest field indicates whether supercooled water and ice are present in an updraft of the cumulus cloud and the second interest field indicates a trend in a weather parameter indicated by the associated portions of the weather data, the at least one processor further configured to analyze at least the first interest field and the second interest field for calculating a lightning initiation score indicating a probability that the cumulus cloud will produce lightning in the future;
and
an output interface configured to provide an output based on the lightning initiation score.

1 more element

A lightning forecasting method, comprising:

storing, in memory, satellite image data and weather data, the weather data indicating atmospheric conditions within a geographic region;
identifying, with a data processing system, a cumulus cloud object within a plurality of samples of the satellite image data;
associating, with the data processing system, portions of the weather data with the identified cumulus cloud object based on locations of the identified cumulus cloud object within the samples of the satellite image data;
determining, with the data processing system based on the associated portions of the weather data, a plurality of interest fields indicating whether a cumulus cloud represented by the cumulus cloud object is likely to produce lightning in the future, wherein the plurality of interest fields include at least a first interest field and a second interest field, and wherein the first interest field indicates whether supercooled water and ice are present in an updraft of the cumulus cloud and the second interest field indicates a trend in a weather parameter indicated by the associated portions of the weather data;
analyzing, with the data processing system, at least the first interest field and the second interest field;
calculating, with the data processing system based on the analyzing, a lightning initiation score indicating a probability that the cumulus cloud will produce lightning in the future;
and
providing an output based on the lightning initiation score with an output interface.

5 more elements

Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.