Method of performing wellsite fracture operations with statistical uncertainties

A method of performing a fracture operation at a wellsite, the wellsite positioned about a subterranean formation having a wellbore therethrough and a fracture network therein, the fracture network comprising natural fractures, the method comprising:

• stimulating the wellsite by injecting of an injection fluid with proppant into the fracture network;
• obtaining wellsite data comprising natural fracture parameters of the natural fractures and obtaining a mechanical earth model of the subterranean formation;
• defining the natural fractures based on the wellsite data by generating one or more realizations of the natural fracture data based on a statistical distribution of the natural fracture parameters;
• generating a statistical distribution of predicted fluid production by generating a hydraulic fracture growth pattern for the fracture network over time based on each defined realization and predicting fluid production from the formation based on the defined realizations, the generating the hydraulic fracture growth pattern comprising:
• extending hydraulic fractures from the wellbore and into the fracture network of the subterranean formation to form a hydraulic fracture network comprising the natural fractures and the hydraulic fractures;
• determining hydraulic fracture parameters of the hydraulic fractures after the extending;
• determining transport parameters for the proppant passing through the hydraulic fracture network;
• and
• determining fracture dimensions of the hydraulic fractures from the determined hydraulic fracture parameters, the determined transport parameters, and the mechanical earth model;
• performing stress shadowing on the hydraulic fractures to determine stress interference between the hydraulic fractures and the natural fractures;
• selecting a reference production from the generated statistical distribution and the stress interference;
• and
• optimizing production and uncertainty by adjusting the stimulating based on the selecting.

A method of performing a fracture operation at a wellsite, the wellsite positioned about a subterranean formation having a wellbore therethrough and a fracture network therein, the fracture network comprising natural fractures, the method comprising:

• stimulating the wellsite by injecting of an injection fluid with proppant into the fracture network;
• obtaining wellsite data comprising natural fracture parameters of the natural fractures and obtaining a mechanical earth model of the subterranean formation;
• defining the natural fractures based on the wellsite data by generating one or more realizations of the natural fracture data based on a statistical distribution of natural fracture parameters;
• generating a statistical distribution of predicted fluid production by generating a hydraulic fracture growth pattern comprising hydraulic fractures for the fracture network over time based on each defined realization and predicting fluid production from the formation based on the defined realizations;
• performing stress shadowing on the hydraulic fractures to determine stress interference between the hydraulic fractures and the natural fractures, wherein performing the stress shadowing comprises increasing the stress interference for a particular fracture in response to determining that the particular fracture is within a threshold distance of another fracture;
• selecting a reference production from the generated statistical distribution and the stress interference;
• and
• optimizing production and uncertainty by adjusting the stimulating based on the selecting.