Optimizing inventory based on predicted viewership

A system, comprising:

• a plurality of set-top boxes;
• a headend including:
• a memory that stores viewership data for a periodic event for a market segment;
• and
• at least one processor, coupled to the memory, configured to execute instructions stored in the memory, the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, configuring the at least one processor to:
• transmit configuration files to the plurality of set-top boxes, the configuration files including collection rules configured to allow the plurality of set-top boxes to opt-in for collection of the viewership data for the periodic event for the market segment, wherein one or more of the plurality of set-top boxes are configured, using the configuration files, to collect and to transmit the viewership data for the periodic event for the market segment;
• receive the viewership data for the periodic event for the market segment from the one or more of the plurality of set-top boxes;
• determine, from the viewership data for the periodic event for the market segment, a tendency of the market segment to view the periodic event by measuring actual minutes watched of the periodic event by the market segment relative to potential minutes available to be watched of the periodic event on the one or more of the plurality of set-top boxes within a service-provider managed network;
• predict viewership for a future occurrence of the periodic event based on the tendency of the market segment;
• compare the predicted viewership for the future occurrence of the periodic event and historical viewership for the periodic event to generate a confidence metric for the predicted viewership for the future occurrence of the periodic event;
• identify a time slot from among a plurality of time slots for which the predicted viewership for the future occurrence of the periodic event exceeds an advertising value threshold, the advertising value threshold being defined in terms of the predicted viewership for the future occurrence of the periodic event and the confidence metric;
• and
• offer the time slot to an advertiser positioned to target the market segment.

A non-transitory computer-readable device having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by a headend, causes the headend to perform operations, the operations comprising:

• transmitting, from a headend, configuration files to a plurality of set-top boxes, the configuration files including collection rules configured to allow the plurality of set-top boxes to opt-in for collection of viewership data for a periodic event for a market segment;
• configuring, using the configuration files, one or more of the plurality of set-top boxes to collect and to transmit viewership data for the periodic event for the market segment to the headend;
• receiving the viewership data for the periodic event for the market segment from the one or more of the plurality of set-top boxes based on the usage configuration files;
• determining, from the viewership data for the periodic event for the market segment, a tendency of the market segment to view the periodic event by measuring actual minutes watched of the periodic event by the market segment relative to potential minutes available to be watched of the periodic event on the one or more of the plurality of set-top boxes within a service-provider managed network;
• predicting viewership for a future occurrence of the periodic event based on the tendency of the market segment;
• comparing the predicted viewership for the future occurrence of the periodic event and historical viewership for the periodic event to generate a confidence metric for the predicted viewership for the future occurrence of the periodic event;
• identifying a time slot from among a plurality of time slots for which the predicted viewership for the future occurrence of the periodic event exceeds an advertising value threshold, the advertising value threshold being defined in terms of the predicted viewership for the future occurrence of the periodic event and the confidence metric;
• and
• offering the time slot to an advertiser positioned to target the market segment.