Systems and methods for generating a geo-level hierarchical Bayesian model

A system comprising:

• at least one computing device operably coupled to at least one memory and configured to:
• generate a plurality of geographic regions by grouping one or more geographic sub-regions into each of the plurality of geographic regions by:
• generating a first geographic region by grouping a first set of the geographic sub-regions;
• and
• generating a second geographic region by grouping a second set of the geographic sub-regions;
• receive data for the geographic sub-regions, the data comprising responses, content inputs, content types, and location identifiers;
• generate geo-level data from the received data by grouping the responses and content inputs of the received data based on a correlation of the location identifiers of the received data to the plurality of geographic regions;
• fit a Bayesian hierarchical model based on at least the geo-level data, the content types, and the geographic regions wherein the Bayesian hierarchical model comprises a posterior distribution for response for each content type of the plurality of content types in each geographic region of the plurality of geographic regions;
• and
• determine a content input mix for the content types for each geographic region based on the Bayesian hierarchical model and a content input constraint, the content input mix indicating a particular content input for each of the plurality of content types in each of the plurality of geographic regions, the content input constraint indicating a total content input for each of the geographic regions, determining the content input mix for the content types for each geographic region comprises:
• determining a first content input mix for the content types for the first geographic region;
• and
• determining a second content input mix different than the first content input mix for the content types for the second geographic region.

One or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by at least one processor, cause the at least one processor to perform operations comprising:

• generating a plurality of geographic regions by grouping one or more geographic sub-regions into each of the plurality of geographic regions, generating the plurality of geographic regions comprises:
• generating a first geographic region by grouping a first set of the geographic sub-regions;
• and
• generating a second geographic region by grouping a second set of the geographic sub-regions;
• receiving data for the geographic sub-regions, the data comprising responses, content inputs, content types, and location identifiers;
• generating geo-level data from the received data by grouping the responses and content inputs of the received data based on a correlation of the location identifiers of the received data to the plurality of geographic regions;
• fitting a Bayesian hierarchical model based on at least the geo-level data, the content types, and the geographic regions, wherein fitting the Bayesian hierarchical model comprises generating posteriors for one or more parameters of the Bayesian hierarchical model;
• and
• determining a content input mix for the content types for each geographic region based on the Bayesian hierarchical model and a content input constraint, the content input constraint indicating a total content input for each of the geographic regions, wherein determining the content input mix for the content types for each geographic region is based on the Bayesian hierarchical model, wherein the Bayesian hierarchical model comprises a posterior distribution for response for each content type of the plurality of content types in each geographic region of the plurality of geographic regions, and the content input constraint, determining the content input mix for the content types for each geographic region comprises:
• determining a first content input mix for the content types for the first geographic region;
• and
• determining a second content input mix different than the first content input mix for the content types for the second geographic region.