Vulnerability life cycle exploitation timing modeling
AssigneeUniversity of South Florida
InventorsSasith Maduranga Rajasooriya, Chris Peter Tsokos, Pubudu Kalpani K Hitigala Kaluarachchilage
Life of this patent
Estimating the term…
Abstract
According to the embodiments, a statistical model is developed to estimate the probability of being in a certain stage of a particular vulnerability in its life cycle. The methodology with the application of Markov chain theory gives the basis for calculating estimates for probabilities for different stages of a life cycle of the vulnerability considered. Using the developed method, it is possible to evaluate the risk level of a particular vulnerability at a certain time. These developments allow an advantage in taking measures to avoid exploitations and introduce patches for the vulnerability before an attacker takes the advantage of that particular vulnerability.
Claims18
A method to develop a model for predicting exploitability, comprising:
- constructing a vulnerability life cycle graph, the vulnerability life cycle graph including a plurality of state nodes each representative of a state of a vulnerability in a computing system;
- determining an initial probability of at least one state node among the plurality of state nodes;
- developing an absorbing transition probability matrix based on the vulnerability life cycle graph and the initial probability of the at least one state node;
- evaluating a vulnerability life cycle associated with the computing system using the absorbing transition probability matrix to determine a probability of the vulnerability of the computing system being exploited at a particular time;
- and
- developing a non-linear model to determine the probability of the vulnerability being exploited at the particular time.
A system to develop a model for predicting exploitability, comprising:
- a memory device configured to store computer-readable instructions thereon;
- and
- at least one processing device directed, through execution of the computer-readable instructions, to:
- construct a vulnerability life cycle graph, the vulnerability life cycle graph including a plurality of state nodes each representative of a state of a vulnerability in a computing system;
- determine an initial probability of at least one state node among the plurality of state nodes;
- develop an absorbing transition probability matrix based on the vulnerability life cycle graph and the initial probability of the at least one state node;
- evaluate a vulnerability life cycle associated with the computing system using the absorbing transition probability matrix to determine a probability of the vulnerability of the computing system being exploited at a particular time;
- and
- develop a non-linear model to determine the probability of the vulnerability being exploited at the particular time.
A method to develop a model for predicting exploitability, comprising:
- constructing a vulnerability life cycle graph, the vulnerability life cycle graph including a plurality of state nodes each representative of a state of a vulnerability in a computing system;
- determining an initial probability of at least one state node among the plurality of state nodes;
- developing an absorbing transition probability matrix based on the vulnerability life cycle graph and the initial probability of the at least one state node;
- iterating the absorbing transition probability matrix over a number of cycles until the absorbing transition probability matrix reaches a steady state;
- and
- developing a non-linear model to determine a probability of the vulnerability of the computing system being exploited at a particular time.
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.