Attributing contributions of digital marketing campaigns towards conversions

In a digital marketing environment to attribute contributions in achieving conversion of a plurality of digital marketing campaigns that are exposed to a plurality of users, a system comprising:

• a contribution distribution module implemented at least partially in hardware to generate digital content attributing contributions to the digital marketing campaigns in achieving the conversion based on first, second and third order probabilities, the contribution distribution module comprising:
• a first order module implemented at least partially in hardware to determine the first order probabilities of the digital marketing campaigns using data that describes interaction of the users with the digital marketing campaigns and whether conversion occurred by respective ones of the users, the first order probabilities indicative of likelihoods of conversion responsive to exposure to respective said digital marketing campaigns;
• a second order module implemented at least partially in hardware to determine the second order probabilities of the digital marketing campaigns using the data, the second order probabilities indicative of likelihoods of conversion responsive to exposure to the respective said digital marketing campaigns in conjunction with another digital marketing campaign of the digital marketing campaigns, the second order probabilities determined using a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the respective said digital marketing campaigns to respective said second order probabilities;
• and
• a third order module implemented at least partially in hardware to determine the third order probabilities of the digital marketing campaigns using the data, the third order probabilities indicative of likelihoods of conversion responsive to exposure to the respective said digital marketing campaigns in conjunction with two other digital marketing campaigns of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns, the third order probabilities determined using a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the respective said digital marketing campaigns to respective said third order probabilities.

One or more computer-readable storage media that are non-transitory and comprising instructions stored thereon that, responsive to execution by a computing device, causes the computing device to attribute a contribution to a particular digital marketing campaign in achieving conversion, the contribution attributed by performing operations comprising:

• determining a first order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from data that describes interaction of a plurality of users with a plurality of digital marketing campaigns that includes the particular digital marketing campaign, the first order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign;
• determining a second order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from the data, the second order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign and another digital marketing campaign of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns, the determining including a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the particular digital marketing campaign in the second order probability;
• determining a third order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from the collected data, the third order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign with two other digital marketing campaigns of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns, the determining including a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the particular digital marketing campaign in the third order probability;
• and
• generating digital content attributing the contribution to the particular digital marketing campaign in achieving conversion, the contribution based on the first, second, and third order probabilities.