Control system and control method for determining a likelihood of a lane change by a preceding vehicle

A control system which for use in a host motor vehicle (10) is configured and intended for recognizing, based on surroundings data obtained from at least one surroundings sensor associated with the host motor vehicle (10), preceding motor vehicles and preferably stationary objects situated ahead, wherein the at least one surroundings sensor is configured for providing an electronic controller of the control system with surroundings data that represent an area in front of the host motor vehicle (10), and the control system is at least configured and intended for

• detecting (S100) another motor vehicle (20), using the road, located in front of the host motor vehicle (10) by means of the at least one surroundings sensor,
• determining (S106) a lateral movement of the other motor vehicle (20) relative to a lane (12, 16) in which the other motor vehicle (20) or the host motor vehicle (10) is present,
• computing (S108) a movement-based likelihood of a lane change by the other motor vehicle (20), based on the determined lateral movement of the other motor vehicle (20),
• determining (S110, S112, S114) an instantaneous traffic situation in accordance with the surroundings data obtained by means of the surroundings sensor,
• computing (S116) a traffic situation-based likelihood of a lane change by the other motor vehicle (20), based on the determined instantaneous traffic situation,
• computing (S118) an overall likelihood of a lane change by the other motor vehicle (20), based on the movement-based likelihood and the traffic situation-based likelihood,
• ascertaining (S204) a host lane (12) in which the host motor vehicle (10) is present,
• ascertaining (S206) an additional lane (16) in which a motor vehicle in the area in front of the host motor vehicle (10) is present,
• determining (S210) that the motor vehicle in the area in front of the host motor vehicle (10) is the other motor vehicle (20) that is to be detected, when the additional lane (16) is adjacent to the host lane (12),
• detecting, over a predetermined time period or continuously, the other motor vehicle (20) using the road, by means of the at least one surroundings sensor, in order to determine the lateral movement of the other motor vehicle (20), which for determining the lateral movement of the other motor vehicle (20) is further configured and intended for
• determining, during the predetermined time period or continuously, a change in a distance (dlateral) between a longitudinal axis (L) of the other motor vehicle (20) and a centerline (18), at least one lane boundary, or at least one lane marker of the lane in which the other motor vehicle (20) or the host motor vehicle (10) is present, which for determining the instantaneous traffic situation is further configured and intended for
• detecting other motor vehicles (22, 24) using the road and/or objects in front of the host motor vehicle (10), by means of the at least one surroundings sensor, and
• determining (S110) a distance (dfront) between the other motor vehicle (20) and an additional motor vehicle (22) or object located in front of the other motor vehicle, as well as a speed difference (Δvfront) between the other motor vehicle (20) and the additional motor vehicle (22) or object located in front of the other motor vehicle, wherein the other motor vehicle (20) and the additional motor vehicle (22) or object located in front of the other motor vehicle are present in the same lane.