Modeling of time-variant threshability due to interactions between a crop in a field and atmospheric and soil conditions for prediction of daily opportunity windows for harvest operations using field-level diagnosis and prediction of weather conditions and observations and recent input of harvest condition states

A method of evaluating threshability of a crop to support harvest operations, comprising:

• within a computing environment comprised of a computer processor and at least one computer-readable storage medium operably coupled to the computer processor and having program instructions stored therein, the computer processor being operable to execute the program instructions to project time-varying threshability of a crop to be harvested in one or more forthcoming temporal harvest windows for a planning of harvest operations in a harvest advisory model configured to perform the steps of:
• predicting expected weather conditions relative to crop wetness over at least one time period relative to the one or more forthcoming temporal harvest windows by applying weather information comprised of recent and current field-level weather data and extended-range weather forecast data to one or more predictive numerical weather models;
• developing an agricultural model that applies the expected weather conditions and one or more physical and empirical characteristics of the crop to be harvested from crop-specific information that includes at least one of crop type data and crop state data representing at least a standing or windrowed status of the crop, and harvest data that includes data related to a threshability of the crop measured by one or more sensors installed upon agricultural equipment associated with harvesting operations of the crop to model a moisture condition of the crop over the one or more forthcoming temporal harvest windows by performing or more simulations, the one or more sensors configured to gather the data related to the threshability of the crop directly from the particular field;
• forecasting changes in one or more threshability characteristics of the crop as the one or more forthcoming temporal harvest windows from the modeled moisture condition of the crop;
• and
• continually augmenting the forecasted changes in the one or more threshability characteristics of the crop by performing additional simulations based on the threshability of the crop measured by the one or more sensors as a growing season progresses, updated field-level weather observations, and updated weather forecast data for a geographical area including the particular field, to predict expected times for the crop to reach one or more threshing thresholds;
• and
• developing a harvest schedule for performing one or more agricultural activities from the harvest condition profile in the particular field, wherein a user performs the one or more agricultural activities based on the harvest schedule, or an automated performance of the one or more agricultural activities by an agricultural vehicle is controlled based on the harvest schedule.

A system comprising:

• a computing environment including at least one computer-readable storage medium having program instructions stored therein and a computer processor operable to execute the program instructions to project time-varying threshability of a crop to be harvested in one or more forthcoming temporal harvest windows for a planning of harvest operations by performing a harvest advisory model within a plurality of data processing modules, the plurality of data processing modules including:
• a weather modeling module configured to predict expected weather conditions relative to crop wetness over at least one time period relative to the one or more forthcoming temporal harvest windows by applying weather information including recent and current field-level weather data and extended-range weather forecast data to one or more predictive numerical weather models;
• one or more modules configured to develop an agricultural model that aggregates the expected weather conditions and one or more physical and empirical characteristics of the crop to be harvested with crop-specific information including at least one of crop type data and crop state data representing at least a standing or windrowed status of the crop, and with harvest data that includes data related to a threshability of the crop measured one or more sensors installed upon by agricultural equipment associated with harvesting operations of the crop, the one or more sensors configured to gather the data related to the threshability of the crop directly from the particular field, the agricultural model configured to perform one or more simulations to forecast changes in one or more threshability characteristics of the crop over the one or more forthcoming temporal harvest windows, and continually augment the forecasted changes in the one or more threshability characteristics of the crop by performing additional simulations based on the threshability of the crop measured by the one or more sensors as a growing season progresses, updated field-level weather observations, and updated weather forecast data for a geographical area including the particular field, to predict expected times for the crop to reach one or more threshing thresholds;
• a harvest condition module configured to generate a harvest condition profile representing the forecast of the changes in one or more threshability characteristics of the crop on both a current day and future days within the at least one time period relative to the one or more forthcoming temporal harvest windows, and generating one or more advisories based on the harvest condition profile;
• and
• an output module configured to develop a harvest schedule for performing one or more agricultural activities from the harvest condition profile in the particular field, wherein a user performs the one or more agricultural activities based on the harvest schedule, or an automated performance of the one or more agricultural activities by an agricultural vehicle is controlled based on the harvest schedule.