A non-transitory computer-readable medium storing instructions executable by one or more computers which, upon such execution, cause the one or more computers to perform operations comprising:
- accessing, for sites, historical readings of HVAC activity, indoor temperature, and outdoor temperature;
- generating models for the sites using the historical readings of HVAC activity, indoor temperature, and outdoor temperature;
- controlling a simulation engine to perform thermostat-based demand response simulations using the models to identify a simulation that achieves a target load shed and load reduction shape for load to be consumed by the sites during a thermostat-based demand response event performed across the sites;
- and
- performing the thermostat-based demand response event based on results of the simulation engine.