Modeling and analysis of hydraulic fracture propagation to surface from a casing shoe

A system comprising:

• a processor;
• a memory;
• a geomechanical model generating module configured to generate a geomechanical model of a sub-surface formation surrounding a well;
• an operational data generating module configured to generate operational data relating to a well control type and comprising at least one input parameter for a hydraulic fracturing simulation executing on the processor;
• a simulating module configured to perform the hydraulic fracturing simulation based upon the geomechanical model and the operational data, wherein the simulating module is configured to determine a control volume of fluid that is injectable into the well, by using a safety factor in conjunction with an estimated range of fluid volumes, calculated by the hydraulic fracturing simulation, that results in a fracture breach a surface or a seabed of the sub-surface formation, wherein the control volume is determined by multiplying or dividing a volume within the estimated range of fluid volumes by the safety factor;
• and
• a drilling subsystem configured to conduct a well control operation by injecting the control volume of fluid into the well, wherein the control volume of fluid injectable into the well is below the estimated range of fluid volumes calculated by the hydraulic fracturing simulation performable by the simulating module.

A computer readable, non-transitory storage medium comprising software instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform a method comprising:

• communicating with at least one oilfield element comprising sending commands and receiving sub-surface data of a formation;
• processing operational data related to a well control operation;
• generating a geomechanical model based on the received sub-surface data;
• simulating creation of a hydraulic fracture and propagation of the hydraulic fracture through the formation based on the operational data and the geomechanical model and calculating an estimated range of fluid volumes that results in the hydraulic fracture and propagation of the hydraulic fracture through the formation;
• determining a control volume of fluid that is injectable into a well, by using a safety factor in conjunction with the estimated range of fluid volumes that results in the hydraulic fracture to breach a surface or a seabed of the formation, wherein the control volume is determined by multiplying or dividing a volume within the estimated range of fluid volumes by the safety factor;
• and
• conducting the well control operation by pumping the control volume of fluid into the well, wherein the control volume of fluid is below the estimated range of fluid volumes that results in the hydraulic fracture and propagation of the hydraulic fracture through the formation.