Building management system with electrical energy storage optimization based on statistical estimates of IBDR event probabilities

A method for optimizing revenue from participating in an incentive-based demand response (IBDR) program, the method comprising:

• storing electrical energy in electrical energy storage, wherein the electrical energy is purchased from a utility;
• determining statistical estimates of IBDR event probabilities based on a history of past IBDR events, each of the past IBDR events comprising an invitation to participate in the IBDR program in exchange for a monetary incentive;
• determining, for each time step within a time horizon, an optimal amount of the stored electrical energy to allocate to the IBDR program by providing a value function that accounts for revenue predicted to result from participating in the IBDR program based on the statistical estimates of the IBDR event probabilities;
• discharging electrical energy from the electrical energy storage based on the optimal amount of the stored electrical energy to allocate to the IBDR program;
• and
• using the discharged electrical energy to participate in the IBDR program.

A controller for allocating an amount of electrical energy to an incentive-based demand response (IBDR) program, the controller comprising:

• a processing circuit configured to:
• generate statistical estimates of IBDR event probabilities based on a history of past IBDR events, each of the past IBDR events comprising an invitation to participate in the IBDR program in exchange for a monetary incentive;
• predict an expected revenue from participating in the IBDR program from the statistical estimates of the IBDR event probabilities;
• determine, for each time step within a time horizon, the amount of electrical energy to allocate to the IBDR program by performing an optimization of a value function that accounts for the expected revenue predicted to result from participating in the IBDR program;
• and
• cause electrical energy storage to discharge electrical energy based on the amount of electrical energy to allocate to the IBDR program.