# US 10,118,610 B2 · Autonomous vehicle using path prediction

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- Number: US 10,118,610 B2
- Document ID: US10118610B2
- Status: Granted
- Kind: B2
- Application number: 15/252,425
- Filed: 2016-08-31
- Published: 2018-03-01
- Granted: 2018-11-06
- Earliest claimed: 2016-08-31
- Assignees: Ford Global Technologies, LLC
- Applicants: Ford Global Technologies, LLC
- Inventors: Kun Deng; Wangdong Luo; Nanjun Liu; Alex Maurice Miller
- Web page: https://patentgrep.com/patent/US10118610B2

## CPC

- B60W 30/09: Taking automatic action to avoid collision, e.g. braking and steering
- B60W 10/18: including control of braking systems
- B60W 10/184: with wheel brakes
- B60W 10/20: including control of steering systems
- B60W 30/0953: {the prediction being responsive to vehicle dynamic parameters}
- B60W 30/0956: {the prediction being responsive to traffic or environmental parameters}
- B60W 50/0097: {Predicting future conditions}
- B60W 60/001: {Planning or execution of driving tasks}
- B62D 15/025: {Active steering aids, e.g. helping the driver by actively influencing the steering system after environment evaluation (B62D1/28 takes precedence)}
- G05D 1/00: Control of position, course, altitude or attitude of land, water, air or space vehicles, e.g. using automatic pilots (drive control systems specially adapted for autonomous road vehicles B60W60/00)
- G08G 1/166: {for active traffic, e.g. moving vehicles, pedestrians, bikes}
- B60W 2420/408: Radar; Laser, e.g. lidar
- B60W 2520/06: Direction of travel
- B60W 2520/10: Longitudinal speed
- B60W 2520/14: Yaw
- B60W 2556/00: Input parameters relating to data
- B60W 2710/18: Braking system
- B60W 2710/20: Steering systems
- B60W 2900/00: Indexing codes relating to the purpose of, or problem solved of road vehicle drive control systems not otherwise provided for in groups B60W30/00
- B60W: CONJOINT CONTROL OF VEHICLE SUB-UNITS OF DIFFERENT TYPE OR DIFFERENT FUNCTION; CONTROL SYSTEMS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR HYBRID VEHICLES; ROAD VEHICLE DRIVE CONTROL SYSTEMS FOR PURPOSES NOT RELATED TO THE CONTROL OF A PARTICULAR SUB-UNIT
- B62D: MOTOR VEHICLES; TRAILERS (steering, or guiding on a desired track, of agricultural machines or implements A01B69/00; wheels, castors, axles, increasing wheel adhesion B60B; vehicle tyres, tyre inflation or tyre changing B60C; connections between vehicles of a train or the like B60D; vehicles for use on rail and road, amphibious or convertible vehicles B60F; suspension arrangements B60G; heating, cooling, ventilating or other air treating devices B60H; windows, windscreens, non-fixed roofs, doors or similar devices, protective coverings for vehicles not in use B60J; propulsion plant arrangements, auxiliary drives, transmissions, controls, instrumentation or dashboards B60K; electric equipment or propulsion of electrically-propelled vehicles B60L; power supply for electrically-propelled vehicles B60M; passenger accommodation not otherwise provided for B60N; adaptations for load transportation or to carry special loads or objects B60P; arrangement of signalling or lighting devices, the mounting or supporting thereof or circuits therefor, for vehicles in general B60Q; vehicles, vehicle fittings or vehicle parts not otherwise provided for B60R; servicing, cleaning, repairing, supporting, lifting, or manoeuvring, not otherwise provided for, B60S; brake arrangements, brake control systems or parts thereof B60T; air-cushion vehicles B60V; motor-cycles, accessories therefor B62J, B62K; testing of vehicles G01M)
- G05D: SYSTEMS FOR CONTROLLING OR REGULATING NON-ELECTRIC VARIABLES
- G08G: TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS (guiding railway traffic, ensuring the safety of railway traffic B61L; arrangement of road signs or traffic signals E01F9/00; radar or analogous systems, sonar systems, lidar systems specially adapted for traffic control G01S13/91, G01S15/88, G01S17/88; {radar or analogous systems, sonar systems, lidar systems specially adapted for anti-collision purposes G01S13/93, G01S15/93, G01S17/93})

## Abstract

A controller in a host vehicle includes a processor and a memory storing processor-executable instructions. The processor is programmed to calculate an error bound for confidence intervals of a predicted position at a future time of a target vehicle relative laterally to a current position and orientation of the host vehicle at a current time based on a current position and velocity of the target vehicle and the future time.

## Claims

### Claim 1

A controller comprising a processor and a memory storing processor-executable instructions, wherein the processor is programmed to:
calculate an error bound for confidence intervals of a predicted position of a target vehicle; and
instruct a steering system of a host vehicle to turn based on the error bound;
wherein the predicted position is at a future time;
the predicted position is relative laterally to a current position and orientation of the host vehicle at a current time;
calculating the error bound is based on a current position and velocity of the target vehicle and the future time; and
the error bound is a product of the future time and a value that is constant with respect to the future time.

### Claim 2 (depends on 1)

The controller of claim 1, wherein the error bound is further based on a current velocity and yaw rate of the host vehicle.

### Claim 3 (depends on 2)

The controller of claim 2, wherein the error bound is further based on a relative heading angle between the host and target vehicles.

### Claim 4 (depends on 3)

The controller of claim 3, wherein the error bound has a linear relationship with the future time.

### Claim 5 (depends on 4)

The controller of claim 4, wherein the error bound is determined from an equation:
ε(t,s)=b(t)*(s−t)+c(t), in which
b
⁡
(
t
)
=
1
1
+
cos
⁡
(
a
M
⁡
(
t
)
)
*
(

x
targ
M
⁡
(
t
)

+
σ
x
targ
x
_
targ
)
*
(

y
targ
M
⁡
(
t
)

+
σ
y
targ
y
_
targ
)
*
(

v
targ
M
⁡
(
t
)

+
σ
v
targ
v
_
targ
)
*
(

v
host
M
⁡
(
t
)

+
σ
v
host
v
_
host
)
*
(

w
host
M
⁡
(
t
)

+
σ
w
host
w
_
host
)
,
and
⁢
c
⁡
(
t
)
=
(
x
targ
M
⁡
(
t
)
)
2
+
(
y
targ
M
⁡
(
t
)
)
2
b
_
;
in which
ε is the error bound, t is the current time, s is the future time, (xtargM(t), ytargM(t)) is the current position of the target vehicle in a host-vehicle-centered coordinate system, vtargM(t) is the current velocity of the target vehicle, vhostM(t) is the current velocity of the host vehicle, whostM(t) is the current yaw rate of the host vehicle, αM (t) is the relative heading angle between the host and target vehicles, xtarg is a lateral offset bound for the target vehicle, ytarg is a longitudinal offset bound for the target vehicle, b is a location bound for the target vehicle, vtarg is a velocity bound for the target vehicle, vhost is a velocity bound for the host vehicle, whost is a yaw rate bound for the host vehicle, and σxtarg, σytarg, σvtarg, σvhost and σwhost are default initialization values.

### Claim 6 (depends on 3)

The controller of claim 3, wherein the error bound is based on inputs consisting of the current position and velocity of the target vehicle, the future time, the current velocity and yaw rate of the host vehicle, and the relative heading angle between the host and target vehicles.

### Claim 7 (depends on 1)

The controller of claim 1, wherein the processor is further programmed to calculate the predicted position at the future time.

### Claim 8 (depends on 7)

The controller of claim 7, wherein the processor is programmed to generate coefficients to calculate the predicted position at the future time using a quadratic polynomial method.

### Claim 9 (depends on 7)

The controller of claim 7, wherein the processor is further programmed to control a vehicle subsystem to evade the target vehicle based on the predicted position and the error bound.

### Claim 10 (depends on 9)

The controller of claim 9, wherein controlling the vehicle subsystem includes instructing brakes to brake.

### Claim 11 (depends on 9)

The controller of claim 9, wherein controlling the vehicle subsystem includes instructing the steering system to turn.

### Claim 12 (depends on 1)

The controller of claim 1, wherein the processor is further programmed to calculate an error metric equal to an absolute value of a difference of the predicted position and a measured position of the target vehicle;
wherein the measured position is at the future time; and
the measured position is relative laterally to the current position and orientation of the host vehicle.

### Claim 13 (depends on 12)

The controller of claim 12, wherein the processor is further programmed to calculate a quality measure equal to a minimum value of a lesser value of 1 and a ratio of the error bound to the error metric, wherein the minimum value is calculated over a period.

### Claim 14 (depends on 13)

The controller of claim 13, wherein the processor is further programmed to disable a feature relying on the error bound based on the quality measure.

### Claim 15 (depends on 14)

The controller of claim 14, wherein the feature is one of automated braking, automated steering, and autonomous operation.

### Claim 16

A method comprising:
calculating an error bound for confidence intervals of a predicted position of a target vehicle; and
instructing a steering system of a host vehicle to turn based on the error bound;
wherein the predicted position is at a future time;
the predicted position is relative laterally to a current position and orientation of the host vehicle at a current time;
calculating the error bound is based on a current position and velocity of the target vehicle and the future time; and
the error bound is a product of the future time and a value that is constant with respect to the future time.

### Claim 17 (depends on 16)

The method of claim 16, wherein the error bound is further based on a current velocity and yaw rate of the host vehicle and a relative heading angle between the host and target vehicles.

### Claim 18 (depends on 17)

The method of claim 17, further comprising calculating an error metric equal to an absolute value of a difference of the predicted position and a measured position of the target vehicle;
wherein the measured position is at the future time; and
the measured position is relative laterally to the current position and orientation of the host vehicle.

### Claim 19 (depends on 18)

The method of claim 18, further comprising calculating a quality measure equal to a minimum value of a lesser value of 1 and a ratio of the error bound to the error metric, wherein the minimum value is calculated over a period.

### Claim 20 (depends on 19)

The method of claim 19, further comprising adjusting a path prediction algorithm based on the quality measure.